Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 25/04/22

Monday's open-to-all GOLD feature is full access to the PACE tab for EVERY race. This allows us to make an informed prediction of how horses might approach a race tactically based on their previous outings and we can then compare this with historical data for the race they're now running in.

As I said, this is available for every race, including Monday's 'free' races...

  • 3.50 Lingfield
  • 5.25 Windsor
  • 5.40 Southwell
  • 6.15 Naas

And the one that I'm going to look at is the first on that list, the 3.50 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over a left-handed 7f on Standard Polytrack...

FORM : Gigi's Beach won last time out and was second two starts ago, whilst Monsieur Patat also has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two. The rest of the field are winless in at least five.

CLASS : All nine ran at Class 6 last time out

COURSE / DISTANCE : All nine have won at today's trip, Monsieur Patat & Cape Greco have won over track & trip, whilst Daring Guest & Agent of Fortune have won here over 6f and 1m respectively.

DAYS OFF : Millicent might well need the run after 236 days away from racing, but aside from Daring Guest (45 days) and Agent of Fortune (54 days), the others have all been out in the last three weeks.

TRAINER / JOCKEY POSITIVES : Not many sadly, just Millicent (trainer course form), Dutugamunu (ockey recent form), Monsieur Patat (jockey course form) and Cape Greco (jockey course form).

It's not a great race and not one we should spend too much time on, so I'm going quickly go through a process of elimination, starting by rejecting Millicent & One Step Beyond for having the worst form and because the latter hasn't raced for eight months, leaving with seven to do a direct comparison on Instant Expert...

These are Class 6 horses for a reason and as such just don't win very often, but even amongst such a mediocre set of results, Daring Guest & Dors Toyboy stand out as being worse than the other five, so I'm eliminating them here too, leaving me with runners in stalls 3, 4, 7, 8 & 9 for a 7f contest that has in the past slightly favoured those drawn in stall 3 or higher, but without a massive draw bias...

Feature of the day is, of course, PACE and analysis of those races above suggests that hold-up horses have done badly, prominent runners hold their own, mid-division runners do pretty well, but leaders fare best of all...

...which based upon how my five have raced in their last couple of outings...

...says that I'm probably best off looking at the first three of that list.

Summary

Short and not very sweet today, I'm afraid. I do think that the first three on the PACE list are the three to focus upon and that the 5/2 Gigi's Beach is probably the one to beat, but I've not really got a strong opinion on the race. I was rather hoping the tools would shed more light, but sometimes that's how it is.

It's perfectly fine to quickly assess a race and decide it's not worth playing in and that's where I'm at ie NO BET. After all, there another 43 races to consider!

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