Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/04/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.17 Stratford
  • 3.05 Bellewstown
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

From which, we have a Class 2 race on the 'free' list and also one on the TJC list. The former is worth considerably more than the latter, so we're off to Essex for the 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W Conditions Stakes over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Plenty of in-form runners here to consider, as you'd expect for a race of this standard with Physique winning last time out, Think Climate winning his last two, Bold Act & Iconic Moment have won three on the spin, whilst Brave Emperor has been first past the post in his last five efforts, even if he was demoted to second two starts ago. Stormy Entry is two from three and Coco jack/Tenjin are the ones who probably look weakest on recent results alone.

LTO winner Physique does step up two classes here, though, which will make life tougher as will a three step rise for hat-trick seeking Think Climate, but stablemates Iconic Moment and New Defifintion ran at Class 1 four weeks ago resulting in a James Tate-trained 1-2 in a Listed race with the pair separated by just a short head with the re-opposing Tenjin a length further back.

Only Brave Emperor (over 6f), Iconic Moment (7f) and Think Climate (7f) have won here at Chelmsford so far, whilst Bold Act (at Kempton & Newmarket), Brave Emperor (Kempton) and Stormy Entry (Dundalk) have all won over the one-mile trip. All bar three of the field have raced insde the last four weeks but Think Climate, Physique and Bold Act are returning from layoffs of 116, 155 and 191 days respectively.

It's a conditions stakes contest, so they all carry the same weight (9st 7lbs), meaning that the trio of Bold Act, Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are best off at the weights, being rated at 101. Alzahir and New Definition are only officially rated one pound worse, but Stormy Entry and Think Climate are considered to be some 12/13 pounds worse than the top-rated trio.

Instant Expert has more stats for us, such as highlighting the six runners sharing eleven standard going wins between them and showing just one previous Class 2 A/W winner...

Brave Emperor is the obvious standout here along with Iconic Moment and I suspect that this pair are very likely to be amongst the ones we should be considering for our winner, whilst Tenjin doesn't appear to be well suited at all. Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are both in the lower half of the draw in stalls 3 & 5 respectively...

...which is the better place to be, as the higher drawn runners have fared much worse than those in stalls 1 to 6. Draw, of course, isn't the be all and end all, especially here at Chelmsford, where the old adage is "get out quick and stay out", but is that really the case? Let's check...

Well, that's a definite yes! The further forward you race, the better the chance of a win/place, so let's consider the most recent pace profiles of the field...

...which suggests that Brave Emperor is likely to be front and centre here, along with some company, of course. Iconic Moment, however, may have to negotiate traffic later on if he's to succeed. Brave Emperor is therefore a low drawn leader and that looks ideal for this contest...

Think Climate will probably go hard early on, but the layoff might well take its toll and this is a big step up for Physique.

Summary

Iconic Moment looks a class act, but I'm not sure his running style lends itself to Chelmsford, so that hands the initiative to Brave Emperor who has ticked boxes throughout the process and at 9/2 could offer some real value. I expect Iconic Moment to be finishing fast, but I'm hoping he doesn't quite get there, but this pair could well be the first two home.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.