Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 02/07/22

Saturday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for our subscribers. Basically, some trainers turn to certain trusted jockeys to get the job done and this report quickly identifies the most successful pairings. Selecting any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing and clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column, but please refer to our User Guide for further information!

As good as the TJC report can be, the free stuff doesn't end there, because we still have a selection of fully functional racecards open to ALL readers as follows...

  • 1.35 Haydock
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.50 Haydock
  • 4.30 Leicester
  • 5.35 Bellewstown
  • 6.20 Carlisle

Personally, I'm not overkeen on any of the six races above, but I'm not saying they're bad races, they just don't appeal to me. However, I have the one trainer/jockey pairing showing on my five year course handicap settings and they have one runner together...

The Sayer/Mulrennan combination has done really well at Carlisle and although the trainer has four runners a the meeting and the jockey has six rides, they only come together with Detective in the 8.20 Carlisle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed mile on good ground...

Now not only do the trainer & jockey go well here at Carlisle, Detective also has a good record, finishing 12112222120 in eleven visits here, including...

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  • 1122 with today's jockey
  • 12112221 over 1m/1m1f
  • 1122 with today's jockey over 1m/1f

Detective is one of just two former course and distance winners in this contest, the other being his stablemate Jackhammer, but on rider bookings, Detective looks like being the first string. He's rated top of the Geegeez SR figures and Instant Expert says...

...that he hasn't performed as well on good ground as he has at class/going/distance and field size, but that 1 from 7 isn't disastrous if you look at his place form...

...which is easily the best on show in this race. The fly in the ointment is that OR of 77, some 7lbs higher than his last win and the same mark at which he toiled last time out. That said, he did run well off 75 two starts ago and that last run was in a better race than he normally races in. £6426 is the biggest prize he has landed so far, yet that contest ten days ago was worth £16,416 to the winner and it was over 1m3f, so I wasn't surprised to see him weaken in the closing stages against better runners. Yes, it was a Class 4, but there's a big gulf between that race and this one, so I can excuse the run.

He's drawn in stall 6 of 9, which looks a good spot to be in...

...not withstanding that stall 2's figures look anomalously good! But he's definitely got a chance from there, depending on how he uses the draw and he tends to be waited with, a confirmed hold-up horse...

...so he's expected to be held-up from the cusp of mid to high draw. Past runnings of similar contests here have tended to suggest that anything but being held-up is good here...

...but he has clearly been the exception to the rule with his record from several hold-up runs defying the stats.

Summary

So can Detective win and do I think he will?

Well, he certainly can, as past efforts here have shown. He has won from various starting positions, he's a hold-up horses despite what the stats say, but he's a course specialist and are his trainer & jockey. His last run aside, he has been in consistently excellent form for well over a year now, he tops the Geegeez SR figures and whilst he's 7lbs higher than his last win, he's only 2lbs higher than a bold run here in a half-length defeat over 1m6f and this looks a shade easier on paper and I think he has an excellent chance here.

Hills were the only firm to have priced the race up at 4pm and their 6/1 offering about Detective is acceptable to me. Had he gone better last time out, he'd have been much shorter, so I'm happy to get on at 6's. I suspect the biggest dangers are to come from bottom weight Jilly Cooper and stablemate Jackhammer, but I'm on Detective here.

 

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