Racing Insights, Saturday 02/09/23 geegeez.co.uk

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

1.40 Navan
3.38 Sandown
3.50 Beverley
4.00 Navan
4.45 Sandown
5.45 Chelmsford

The Sandown race from the free list is the highest rated of the races above, but 2yo contests really aren't my bag, but the preceding race on that card is the 'next best'. The in-form Beckett/Ryan trainer/jockey combo team up with Lord Protector and although the field is a little bigger than I'm comfortable with, there's the prospect of some E/W action with most bookies paying four places (some go five) in the 3.00 Sandown, a 14-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (after 18yds rail movement) on good to firm ground...

Somewhat surprisingly for a big field in a decent standard of handicap, none of these runners even made the frame last time out and only Eagle's Way (4 wins), Lord Protector (1), Andaleep (1), Kitsune Power (1), Skysail (2) and Baltic Voyage (1) have landed any of their last six contests.

The entire field bar Great Max (who debuts for Michael Bell here), Dashing Roger and Skysail have however previously won over today's trip, whilst Lord Protector, Andaleep and Dual Identity are former course and distance winners. Dashing Roger has also won here at Sandown, landing a one mile, Class 3 handicap here in late May 2021.

All bar Groundbreaker have raced in the last seven weeks, but at 86 days, even he shouldn't be too rusty here after a recent wind op. Dashing Roger drops down a class today afteer being well beaten in a Group 2 at Ascot, but Stay Well, Great Max and Skysail are all up from Class 3, but the latter (along with Baltic Voyage) does at least get a 6lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

Instant Expert says that Andaleep should relish conditions here...

...even if he is winless at Class 2. Plenty of his rivals (inc Certain Lad, Lord Protector, Stay Well & Dashing Roger) have a string of defeats at this level and Certain Lad also has a poor win record over today's trip, but he is now 7lbs lower than his last win, whilst most of his rivals are still running off higher marks than their on last successes, although Dashing Roger's last Flat win was off 14lbs higher than today's mark. That said, that win was over two years ago and he's finished 070700537 since.

As I might be looking for an E/W pick today, let's have a quick look at the place stats before considering any possible effects of pace/draw...

...where the following are of the most obvious immediate interest...

...not withstanding Kitsune Power's relatively weak record in this grade. He's drawn low in stall 4 here and although 1m2f is plenty of distance to undo a good/bad draw, those drawn lowest have seemed to have a slight advantage...

I wouldn't say that the draw bias was big enough to persuade/dissuade me when it comes to a selection, so I suspect/hope the pace stats offer me more assistance...

Those paint a much clearer picture of what might be required her with those racing prominently or leading winning 68% of the races from less than 35% of the runners and also faring better on the places. Hold-up horses have really struggled here in the past, which doesn't look like great news for Kitsune Power and Dual Identity if their last few races are anything to go by...

If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...

...with Lord Protector and Eagle's Way the one making most appeal.

Summary

This is a poor contest for a Class 2 handicap in my opinion with the field only having made the frame a combined 18 times from 91 Class 2 races, a pretty poor strike rate of 19.78%, with only 6 (6.6%) wins. It's a Class 3 race in all but name and on that basis alone, that's another tick for Lord Protector and Eagle's Way, who also made most appeal on the pace/draw heat map.

Eagle's Way was also one of the ones I highlighted on Instant Expert and with four wins and a runner-up finish from his last six outings, he's the one to beat here in my opinion. He's currently 7/1 with Corals and appears to be drifting, so he might even become an E/W pick. Lord Protector is a full point shorter in the market and although I expect him to go well, I don't tend to place E/W bets at 6/1, so he'd need to drift too for me to get involved.

If I was to highlight any of the double-digit odds runners who might run better than their price, I'd probably suggest the likes of Certain Lad and Andaleep at 16's and 14's respectively and they might be reasonable E/W punts if your bookie is paying five places.

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