Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 04/06/22

Saturday's free feature, the Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the TJC report , we have the following free racecards for Saturday...

  • 2.35 Epsom
  • 3.00 Tramore
  • 3.06 Doncaster
  • 3.30 Worcester
  • 5.11 Musselburgh
  • 5.21 Doncaster

My settings for the  haven't thrown up much of interest, so I'm going to look at the first of the free races, the 2.35 Epsom, the 10-runner, 3yo+ Fillies And Mares, Group 3, Princess Elizabeth Stakes over a left-handed 1m½f on good ground...

Somewhat surprisingly for a race of this calibre, only three of the field (Miss Marble, Mrs Fitzherbert & Roman Mist) won last time out, but all bar Statement have raced in the last seven weeks. Statement, however, has been away for eight months and now makes a first start for Kevin Ryan. Miss Marble steps up from Class 3 here, but the other nine all competed at Class 1 LTO and four of these (Bashkirova, Miss Marble, Mrs Fitzherbert & Roman Mist) have already tasted success at similar trips to today.

It's a non-handicap so all should carry 9st 8lbs, but the three 3yr olds (Flash Betty, Majestic Glory & Rolling The Dice) all get a very handy 12lbs allowance making them effectively "best off" at the weights compared to official ratings. Of the 4 yr olds, Mrs Fitzherbert, Technique and Bashkirova are rated highest with Statement worst off of all.

BASHKIROVA
Didn't race as a 2yo, but won her first three starts last year, culminating in a Class 2 handicap success. She was then beaten by just over 5 lengths in a 1m2f Listed race before a 175-day break. She returned to action at the end of April to finish as a runner-up, half a length behind the re-opposing Mrs Fitzherbert in a 1m Listed contest at Goodwood, when collared late on.

MISS MARBLE
Returned in late April from a three month break to win at Nottingham over today's trip, but that was a Class 3 handicap and this is much tougher. The runner-up from that race has subsequently finished just 5th of 6 in the race Bashkirova was the runner-up recently.

MRS FITZHERBERT
Won back to back handicaps in August/September last year before going down by less than 3 lengths on her Class 1 debut. She was then rested for six months before coming back to beat Bashkirova in a Listed race at Goodwood under today's jockey and the pair are now three from three together.

POTAPOVA
Won her first two starts in C5 & C3 Novice contests before being pitched straight in to Group 1 action, where she unsurprisingly struggled. A pair of Gr 3 defeats followed and she was sent back to the shed for 222 days. She returned to action in mid-April and was a runner-up in a Lised race, just a head behind the winner, Roman Mist, who also runs here today.

ROMAN MIST
Beat Potapova above by just a head on Easter Monday, but had already been a Listed runner-up previously. Has more experience/past success than Potapova and probably still just about holds her here.

STATEMENT
Finished 221 as a 2yr old and was only beaten by a short head as runner-up in a 17-runner Group 3 contest (Fred Darling) on her 3yo seasonal debut, but hasn't really kicked on since then, although she was third of eight in this race last year, but never really looked like winning. Hasn't finished better than mid-division in three runs since and has moved owner/trainer.

TECHNIQUE
Won a Class 5 Novice event at Wolverhampton on debut in Jan '21, but has been beaten in all eight starts since. That said she has been a runner-up in a Gr 3 and two Listed events in her last five outings, beaten by just a head on three efforts. Didn't go well in the Oaks here last year, when seeming not to 'get' the course, which could be a worry.

FLASH BETTY
Looks well out of her depth here, I'm afraid, having own just one of 18 on the Flat and went down by some 14 lengths in a Listed race on her last outing. That sort of run won't cut it here and I'd be very surprised if she was to get involved here.

MAJESTIC GLORY
Won the Gr 3 Sweet Solera at Newmarket last August, but was then 6th of 9 at Gr 2 and last of 9 at Gr 1, before bedding down for the winter. Seemed much better in the Fred Darling this year when 3rd (bt by 1.75L) after a 190-day break, but hasn't raced this far yet.

ROLLING THE DICE
Probably needed the run at York recently coming back from eight months off track, but coming home last of twelve, 32 lengths off the pace in a Listed race isn't ideal preparation for a Group 3 contest at a big meeting and I just feel that on the basis of that run, she has too much ground to make up here and will most likely be down the field with Flash Betty.

I don't fancy the chances of Flash Betty, Miss Marble and Rolling The Dice here very much and I'd be surprised if the got anywhere near the first four home, so I'm making my picture a little clearer by discarding them before I open up the Instant Expert tab, which looks like this now...

Without nailing my colours to any mast after seeing that above, I am ready to discard both Statement and Technique here. Neither have even won a Listed race and I'm not seeing either of them suddenly landing a Group 3 event. Of the five I'm keeping, the green blocks speak for themselves and I've no real cause for concern prior to assessing draw and pace.

The draw...

...in this type of race here has tended to favour those draw higher, which is good news for Mrs Fitzherebert & Potapova on my five in contention, while the pace stats...

...clearly say that you can't afford to dwell here and that probably puts Potapova in the worst position of my final five...

So, if that puts paid to her chances, I've now got the field now to four.

Summary

By process of elimination, I've whittled the field down to a quartet of Bashkirova, Majestic Glory, Mrs Fitzherbert and Roman Mist. I fancy the winner to come from Bashkirova and Mrs Fitzherbert and they're closely matched on a recent run with the latter holding the former and I think that might well be the case again here, so for me, it's the 7/2 Mrs Fitzherbert to win with Bashkirova her biggest danger.

Of the other pair, again there's little between them, but I just like Roman Mist that little bit more and at 9/1 generally, she wouldn't be a bad E/W shout. That said, some firms are paying four places, so you could hedge your bets and take an E/W punt on Majestic Glory at a similar price.

Good Luck and enjoy the weekend!

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