Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 05/03/22

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report , bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

We also have a selection of free functional racecards on offer to non-Gold subscribers and they will cover...

  • 1.40 Navan
  • 2.55 Doncaster
  • 3.30 Doncaster
  • 3.43 Kelso
  • 5.15 Doncaster
  • 7.00 Southwell

My settings for the TJC report have generated the following for course 5-year handicaps...

and these for 1 year (anywhere) handicaps...

...but I want to focus on the free races today, because the two back-to-back Doncaster offerings are both decent-looking Class 2, soft (heavy in places) ground, 5yo+ handicap chases. The first is a 7-runner affair over 2m½f worth just over £15.6k, but I want to look at the 3.30 Doncaster, because it has 8-runners (better E/W possibilities), the trip is 3m2f (I love the stayers) and it's worth just over £28.6k to the winner, who'll have successfully negotiate 19 fences on a left-handed track and here are the runners...

We have three LTO winners on show here in the shape of Soyouthinksoagain, Powerstown Park and Le Milos. The latter is actually on a hat-trick and won in this grade LTO, making him probably the form pick as the other two are now both stepping up in class, as is Legends Gold. Cloth Cap, Mister Malarky and Storm Control, on the other hand are all dropping down from Class 1 (Lst, Gr3 & Lst respectively) action.

Mister Malarky makes a debut for his new handler here and it's his first run since a wind op. Storm Control is the only previous course winner, albeit at a trip 7f shorter than here, but he has also won over both 3m1½f and 3m2½f, whilst Cloth Cap, Undersupervision and Powerstown Park are winners at 3m2f, whilst Soyouthinksoagain has scored at 3m1½f. No real negatives from trainer/jockey form, so let's look at the horses...

CLOTH CAP
Won back to back Class 1 races last season, including his first run of 2021 almost a year ago. This season hasn't quite gone to plan for him and hasn't really seen races out properly and refused to jump the last at Ascot last time out. He is a pound lower than his last win, but has a poor record on soft ground.

LE MILOS
Switched to chasing at the start of 2021 and has finished 313211 since. He gamely made all at Sandown a month ago and was all out to hang on by a head, but now he's up 4lbs and this is 2f further than LTO/he's ever gone, which makes life tough, but he is 2 from 2 on heavy ground. Might have more to come?

MISTER MALARKY
A winner of 3 Class 1 chases (Lst, Gr3 & Gr2) in 2019/20, but his form since landing a Listed race in mid-December 2020 reads 73P050 and has been heavily beaten in each of his last three outings. Hasn't raced for 14 weeks now, so might need a run anyway and this is his first outing since leaving the Tizzard yard.

STORM CONTROL
Was more comfortable than half a length might suggest when winning at Newbury in mid-January despite idling on the run-in, a tendency that cost him next time out 10 days later, when throwing a 5 length lead away and getting caught in the last half furlong by Windsor Avenue in the Sky Bet Chase here over 3m five weeks ago. Up 4lbs and 2 furlongs here, will find this a tougher task and hopefully he'll be kept working to the line. Should that happen, he has every chance.

UNDERSUPERVISION
Will get the trip and loves heavy ground, but hasn't quite managed to reproduce his hurdling form over the bigger obstacles. He wasn't outclassed at Sandown recently but was still beaten by some 12 lengths and will need to improve to get involved.

SOYOUTHINKSOAGAIN
A reasonable hurdler (2 wins and 4 places from 11) who has really taken to chasing, finishing 2161 in four starts and on bare results, you'd give him a chance, but he's up in class, up 4lbs and is unproven on soft/heavy ground. I suspect he'll go well for much of the race, but find it a bit much when push comes to shove.

POWERSTOWN PARK
Has landed two nice victories at Hereford from his last three outings either side of being pulled up at Market Rasen on Boxing Day to get off the mark over fences, having won each of his last three efforts over hurdles last March. A gutsy likeable sort, who recovered from a couple of mistakes last time out to still win and although he's up in class and weight, the trip's no bother and better jumping might carry him through.

LEGENDS GOLD
Started the season well, finishing 332, albeit beaten by 11 and 14 lengths in the latter pair of those races. Didn't go at all last time out at Wincanton, though and was always struggling before being withdrawn 5 out. A 10-day break might not have been enough that day, but he fact remains that she's still only 1 from 9 over fences and despite receiving weight all round and liking soft/heavy ground, the sole mare in the field might find this too much.

Although this field have made the frame in 71 (46.1%) of their combined 154 previous outings, winning 36 (23.4%) of them, soft/heavy ground and a fairly lengthy (3m2f) trip often sorts out the wheat from the chaff, so we turn to Instant Expert for a breakdown of how they've fared under expected conditions...

...and this happens quite often in such races, one horse will have a far better record under the conditions than the rest of the field and I'm really interested in Storm Control at the moment from a win perspective. Let's look at the place results to see who might challenge...

Well, there's not really a lot there if truth be told. Le Milos and Legends Gold are probably the best of the rest, based on that evidence. If we revert back to Storm Control, his recent efforts suggest he fares best when up with the pace and might well decide to try and win this from the front...

...which based on the data from our Pace Analyser could well be the right tactic to employ...

Le Milos who scored better than most on Instant Expert is also likely to be in the ascendency early on, improving his own chances, as will Cloth Cap.

Summary

The three most likely to take it on, Storm Control, Cloth Cap and Le Milos are probably the ones to focus on here. I was rather hoping that Powerston Park would have a stronger pace profile, because I did quite like his chances p to that point, but I'm reluctantly setting him aside and hoping I don't rue the decision.

Of the three I am going with, it's hard to get away from Storm Control's chances here, he has ticked more boxes than the others all the way through and although he can be lazy late on, the better quality around him could just spur him on and based on that, I think that Bet365's price of 11/2 is quite generous and at least a full point more than I expected, so I'm on!

As for the other pair, I've little/nothing between them on my own ratings, but Le Milos is probably a better horse in better form and will get the ground more readily, so I'd say Le Milos beats Cloth Cap here for silver.

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