Racing Insights, Saturday 06/04/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and sadly they have only generated one runner for me to check out under 1-year form...

...but thankfully as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

• 1.30 Kempton
• 2.25 Kelso
• 2.40 Kempton
• 4.45 Kelso
• 6.15 Chelmsford

...and although it has more runners than I'm normally comfortable with, the best of those four races above looks like the 2.40 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

Intinso and Valsad both won last time out and Cannon Rock comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Old Peculier was a runner-up on his UK debut follwing three straight wins at Dundalk and Old Harrovian has won two of his last three, having been denied a hat-trick when switched to turf for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury last May.

Which, of course, means that he now makes a comeback after 322 days off the track, so he might be a little rusty here, as might Captain Wierzba after his own 337-day break, during which he was gelded. Chillingham, Laafi, Londoner and Killybegs Warrior are also without a run in 2024, having been rested for 135, 147, 169 and 175 days respectively.

Most of these did race at Class 2 last time out, but Valsad and the fast-finisher Youthful King step up from Class 3 and Cannon Rock is up two classes here, but a stated above, Old Harrovian last ran at Group 3 and now wears a tongue-tie for the first time as he drops to down in class to become one of three handicap debutants (Captain Wierzba and Cannon Rock are the others), whilst Duc de Kent's second UK appearance will be his second handicap effort after a winter in Bahrain where he failed to make the frame in four attempts.

Londoner makes a yard debut for Jim Goldie and has been gelded since leaving Aidan O'Brien, for whom he was a runner-up on his last outing. Cemhaan is the only previous course winner (over 1m4f) of the four (Killybegs Warrior, Youthful King & Dream Harder being the others), but three of the field (Youthful King, Dream Harder & Old Peculier) have won over a similar trip.

The field's 2-year form under today's conditions looks like this...

...which is a little bit sketchy to say the least, although Cemhaan and Intinso tick some boxes. I do suspect that in a 14-runner field where the bookies will pay 4 or even 5 places, that we might be better off seeing if we can find one to make the frame before we consider a winner, so here are the place stats from those races above...

...and whilst the field is generally quite inexperienced under these conditions, there are still positives to take from the data, but I think I'd want to eliminate Killybegs Warrior, Duc de Kent, Londoner, Captain Wierzba, Dream Harder and Laafi at this point, which should make the picture a little clearer for me and leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 13 over a course and distance that despite not having a huge draw bias...

...has seemed to favour those drawn in stalls 1 to 8 in terms of the PRB3 scores, which mightn't be great news for Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from the eight runners I'm still looking at, although I suspect that in a big field like this race positioning and tactics aka 'pace' will have a huge bearing on the result. If we therefore look back at this 100+ races above that I used for the draw analysis, there's a clear definition of what works best here...

...and if we then look at this field's last few runs...

...the ones that interest me from a pace profile would be the first six on that list plus Chillingham and Old Harrovian, as I'm looking for a 4-race pace average of 3.00 or higher or three scores of 3+ from four runs.

Summary

I used Instant Expert to whittle the field from fourteen to eight runners, who in draw order were Intinso, Cannon Rock, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan, Chillingham, Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from which Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier seemed disadvantaged by the draw, whilst the pace make-up of the race doesn't seem to suit Cannon Rock, Youthful King and Old Peculier.

If I remove those that seem unsuited by pace and/or draw, I'm left with four runners who the stats suggest have a good chance of making the frame here : Intinso, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan and Chillingham and to be perfectly honest, I'd be happy to back all of them to at least get placed. I think Intinso and Old Harrovian are much better than the other two and they're actually my 1-2 here.

Sadly, the 5.30pm market agrees with on those two, albeit they have them the other way around...

...so we've not managed to unearth something nobody else has spotted, I'm afraid, but Chillingham and Cemhaan are both interesting at 8's and 16's respectively, particularly the latter at that price, especially if you can get five places from your bookie.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24