Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/08/22

Thanks everyone for the lovely emails and messages about Thursday evening's winner and 425/1 trifecta, it's great when everything falls in to place, but no resting on laurels here, we're now looking forward to Saturday's racing, where the free Geegeez Gold feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users.

Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

And this free report is supplemented by the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 2.17 Redcar
  • 3.00 Haydock
  • 3.40 Newmarket
  • 4.20 Newmarket
  • 4.40 Haydock
  • 6.25 Kilbeggan

That list includes a couple of Group 3 races, so I feel we should cover one of those and with one being a 2yo fillies contest, I'll stay closer to home (my home in Lancashire, that is!) for the 3.00 Haydock aka the Rose of Lancaster Stakes, a Group 3 Flat race for ten 3yo+ runners over a left handed 1m2½f on Good to Soft ground (as it tends to be at Haydock in Summer!)...

Half of the field (Anmaat, Grocer Jack, Passion And Glory, Peter The Great and Royal Champion) won last time out, whilst the other five are winless in their last five races.

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Only Foxes Tales, Grocer Jack, Marie's Diamond and Passion And Glory ran at Class 1 (Listed) LTO, the other six all step up in class, which means that Grocer Jack & Passion And Glory are both LTO Class 1 winners.

Intellogent & Marie's Diamond are the only ones without a win at a similar trip to this one, although the latter along with Brentford Hope and Certain Lad is a former Haydock winner, whilst Foxes Tales has won over course and distance.

Royal Champion has been off the track for the last nine weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last 2 to 6 weeks or so and Brentford Hope wears first-time cheekpieces.

That's the story of the racecard, now I'll cut to the chase : I don't really like any of the five without a recent win and I'm firmly of the opinion that the winner (and placers) will come from one of the LTO winners, so my card now looks like this...

...with runners in stalls 1, 5, 8, 9 and 10. Please note, clicking the X to the left of the Course/Distance icons removes/re-adds the horse to the card.

I expect Grocer Jack to be a pretty short favourite, as there's more to him than his sole run/win on these shores, but I'm hopeful of finding a couple of placers for an E/W bet or for exacta/trifecta purposes.

ANMAAT had a great summer last year finishing 132112 progressing from Class 5 novice races to decent standard Class 2 handicaps moving his mark from 83 to 103, a mark he won off at York when landing the 22-runner John Smith's Cup Handicap at York four weeks ago despite coming off a 287-day break. This is tougher, of course, but he seems destined to go well for an in-form yard that works well with today's jockey...

GROCER JACK won a Listed race at Newbury last month on his UK debut, but his form in Europe over the previous 14 months or so has been excellent with seven runs providing him with a Group 1 runner-up spot, two Group 2 runner-up finishes and a pair of Group 3 wins. Easy to see why he'll be favourite on that form, plus he handles some cut in the ground well enough and the trainer/jockey/course stats are strong...

PASSION AND GLORY has only raced seven times in the last three years, but has won six of them, including a Group 3 at Goodwood a year ago and a Listed race at Sandown five weeks ago on his last two UK runs. He beat Foxes Tales by nearly six lengths last time and I suspect he'll be one of the main threats today under a jockey in good nick...

PETER THE GREAT has finished 2211 in his last four, which is good news, but only the last of those four was on turf and three of the four were small-field Class 2 handicaps (the first was a 5-runner C3!) I fully expect him to run as well as he can, but he does look a bit outclassed here, even if his yard love coming to Haydock...

ROYAL CHAMPION won well at Epsom last time out, when beating 13 runners to a Class 2 handicap over 1m2f to help erase memories of back to back Class 1 defeats that saw him beaten by 16 lengths as 9th of 19 at York in the 2021 Dante and by 29 lengths as last of four in Doncaster's Listed Mile in March this year. Like the one above, he's no mug, but I very much doubt he's good enough here, although his jockey has a good record at this track...

I'm not sure that Peter The Great nor  Royal Champion have what it takes to trouble the others, so I think I'm already at my final three and their relevant form looks like this...

...with the caveat that Grocer jack's European form isn't on there and that Anmaat has never raced at Class 1, so a leap to a Group 3 is quite a big one. Yet if the lack of experience at this level is an issue for Anmaat, at least he's better drawn than Passion And Glory here...

As for pace, I think that all three will feature early on, if recent runs are anything to go by...

...with Grocer Jack likely to try to make all and Passion And Glory sitting in behind on a track, where mid-division seems to be the 'graveyard of hopes'...

...and I think the pace angle favours Passion And Glory more than Anmaat.

Summary

I think it's pretty apparent that I think Grocer Jack is the one to beat here and that Passion And Glory & Anmaat are the ones I expect to fill the frame. If Grocer Jack isn't quite at it, then that might let Passion in rather than Anmaat. The bookies don't quite see it my way, however...

...but I think Passion And Glory is a decent E/W chance at 7's, especially with both SkyBet & Hills paying four places and I hope he drifts. At a bigger price for four places, Foxes Tales might outrun his 20/1 ticket.

 

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