Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 07/05/22

Saturady's free GOLD feature, the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report and this has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

But wait, there's more, we also have our usual daily selection of full free racecards and they're going to be for...

  • 2.35 Cork
  • 3.05 Hexham
  • 3.15 Lingfield
  • 4.05 Ascot
  • 4.55 Cork
  • 7.20 Warwick

And I think I'll refer back to the TJC report, where my settings...

...have produced a few qualifiers on the 1-year handicap option...

...from which I'm going to focus on Clive Cox's pair of 3 yr old LTO winners set to run in back to back races at Nottingham. Both will be saddled by Liam Keniry in Class 5 handicaps on good ground on this left-handed track with Murphy's Dream running first over 1m½f followed 35 minutes later by Midnight Train tackling 1m2f.

Four from sixteen is a decent return for a trainer/jockey combination, but the fact that ten made the frame is what caught my eye. You can't win if you don't make the frame and if only 60% of your rides are in the places, then you've always the chance of winning, so let's have a quick look the Cox/Keniry runners and see if they're worth backing, starting with Murphy's Dream...

So, we have a 3yr old colt who won last time out (101 days ago) when scoring at Kempton in a Class 5, 7f maiden. All three career runs have so far been at Class 5 on the A/W and they include two previous unplaced efforts on Tapeta, over 6f at Wolverhampton and over 7f at Southwell before winning on Polytrack debut. he now races on turf for the first and had been allotted an mark of 73 for his handicap debut, whereas the runner-up from Kempton has been well beaten off marks of 64 & 66 recently, so 73 might be a reach.

The yard is in good nick, though, with half of its 20 runners over the last fortnight making the frame with 6 going on to win, whilst here at Nottingham the Cox runners are 6 from 24 (25%) since the start of last season, including four winners from nine at Class 5.

Murphy's Dream is drawn wide in 11 of 12 and raced in mid-division in his two defeats before a more prominent effort saw him break his duck at Kempton ;ast time out. In the past here, a mid-range draw has been more advantageous, but stall 11 has certainly held its own...

As for the pace in those races above, Murphy's Dream would be well advised to race prominently once more, based on these numbers...

So, his running style could be spot on, even if  the draw isn't perfect. That said he has more than a mile to undo any effects of the draw, so who knows?

*

And now to Midnight Train...

...who won on handicap debut just twelve days ago off a mark of 54 and is up 4lbs here for that win at Windsor. He's also up in class, but would naturally be expected to improve upon his last run, as that came after 151 days off the track, yet he was still finding more as the post got nearer, which bears well for a step up in trip.

Like his stablemate above, he's also drawn in the second to end box, running from stall 12 of 13 and although his pace profile is a little more muddled, he'd be expected to be in mid-division, as per his two other turf outings. I've already mentioned the form of the yard, so won't bother you with those details again.

A longer trip and a slightly bigger field puts a different perspective on the draw stats now and Midnight train's high draw looks more beneficial than that of his stablemate earlier...

...but I feel that a return to the prominent run from three starts ago would be his best tactic here, based on previous similar contests...

It's almost the opposite way around to the previous race, whereby he does have a good draw, but not quite there on pace profile, but he does have the advantage of a turf win and it's not his first handicap outing. he's entitled to improve from last time out and this might not take a lot of winning.

Summary

Had Murphy's Dream had a previous turf outing to look at or if today's race was on Polytrack, then I'd be interested in having a small wager on him at 10/1 (Bet 365) especially with a bookie paying four places, but he might need the run after 101 days, he's not had a turf run and 73 might just be a tad high for a handicap debut. Don't get me wrong, that 10/1 E/W punt might well pay off, but I've erred on the side of caution and left him alone. The 9/4 fav Aussie Banker should be winning this and at a bigger price Loquace was interesting around the 10/1 mark for an E/W pick.

I do, however, like the chances of Midnight Train, but the bookies aren't exactly being generous at 11/4 (Bet365), although I suspect that might end up being a good price, so I'm taking that whilst I can. Elsewhere, at a bigger price for an E/W interest, Young Winston might fit the bill at 18/1 if you can get 4 places.

 

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