Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 08/01/22

Saturday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, which is a bit of a mouthful but it does exactly what it says on the tin. It brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to all this lovely data, we also have half a dozen full free racecards, which will cover...

  • 12.00 Lingfield
  • 12.13 Newcastle
  • 12.30 Cork
  • 2.20 Lingfield
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.33 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TJC Report...

...haven't generated any possible selections, so I'll refer back to the free list, where the Sandown race is easily the best standard, but it's a Novice race with a really short favourite and isn't of a lot of interest to me. Next best is the second of the two All-Weather races, it has a small but competitive field and I've chosen to cover that today. It's the 2.20 Lingfield, a 5-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard going polytrack and here's the quintet looking to win £10,800...

Chance has made the frame in half of his dozen A/W runs, winning four times including LTO at Kempton, doing just enough with plenty in hand. He's up 3lbs and one class here and has had the thick end of six weeks rest, so should be refreshed. His yard are 32 from 142 (22.5%) here on the Lingfield A/W and jockey Ross Coakley is three from five this year prior to two rides at Wolverhampton on Friday.

Deal A Dollar is a 6yr old by Frankel and had a good debut season in 2018/19 with two wins and four runner-up finishes from his first seven outings. He only raced four times in 2020 tailing off lame in the last of those at Royal Ascot before going back to the shed for 18 months. He was last of five here at this grade over 1m4f on his reappearance three weeks ago and a 2lb drop in weight, a 2f drop in trip and the benefit of a run should make him more competitive, but he is now winless in seven.

Habit Rouge has 4 wins and a place from ten A/W runs and had two wins and a runner-up finish from his six outings in 2021, the last of which was in mid-June. He didn't race again until New Year's Day, when beaten by nine lengths as 7th of 11 over 1m3f at this grade over at Southwell. Having had the run and back on Polytrack where he is 113214 (although all at Chelmsford), he should be closer here and jockey Hollie Doyle is 64/391 (16.4%) here since the start of 2019.

Alexander James is 0 from 9 on the Flat and was pulled up on his effort over hurdles, but this 6yr old by Camelot certainly likes the All-Weather, finishing 1311 in his four efforts and comes here on a hat-trick after wins on the Tapeta at Newcastle (C3, 1m) and then up in trip/class at Wolverhampton (C2, 1m1½f) on Boxing Day. Another half furlong here shouldn't be an issue based on how he finished last time out, but he's up another 3lbs (+6lbs from 2LR) and makes a Lingfield debut after only finishing 3rd of 5 over 7f at Chelmsford on his sole polytrack run to date.

Headingley is far better on the A/W (3 wins, 2 places from 7) than he is on the Flat (1w, 2pl from 10) and finished 221 on his last three polytrack outings, where he has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 efforts, all at Chelmsford. Since then he's had one spin on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton where he was unsuited by the lack of pace over 1m1½f when 5th of 6, some 4¼ lengths adrift of the afore-mentioned Alexander James. A return to his favoured surface and a 3lb pull from the winner could/should make him more competitive here, but he hasn't won beyond Class 4, but his yard is in good nick right now and his jockey rides this track really well, especially for this trainer...

So, it looks like all five might have a chance of winning or getting close. Hopefully Instant Expert's overview of past relevant form will begin to separate them out...

...where Deal A Dollar probably looks weakest and the hat-trick seeking Alexander James the one to beat. They've all coped well in small fields and all carry more weight than their last win. we've precious little previous course form and only a couple of Class 2 successes, but at least all have won on the A.W before.

The draw stats here suggest that the higher the draw the better, which makes sense as you can go quicker for longer and try to cut across the apex of the bend...

...so that should favour Chance over Alexander James who has the inside draw. As for the race tactics needed to succeed here, the message is get to the front if you can, but if you can't, then drop yourself out the back for a run...

...which is all well and good but when you've got a field of five horses with no specific running style...

...you end up with a pace/draw heatmap that suggests a falsely run race, as they can't all run like the following...

Habit Rouge might well take it on with Deal A Dollar and Chance will probably just tuck in at the back, which won't be a bad idea from that wide draw.

Summary

Any of the five could win, but the most likely must be the form horses Alexander James and Chance and they will probably be the first two home. I've a really slight preference for Chance, but there's really nothing in it.

Deal A Dollar looks the weakest here and I think that Habit Rouge might get the better of Headingley, not that you'll get paid on third, but if one of the two favs slips up...

The bookies agree with my selections for the first two home and that it'll be tight, as Hills had my 1-2 at 15/8 & 7/4 at 3.45pm Friday and to be honest, I probably wouldn't put any money down on either of them, but might just play the forecast. Habit Rouge, however, is currently 15/2 and might be worth just a small saver bet for a place.

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