Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 09/04/2022

Saturday's free feature, the Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report, brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to preferred riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies those most successful at it. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing, whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following free races to choose from...

  • 1.00 Newcastle
  • 2.05 Thirsk
  • 3.15 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Aintree
  • 4.52 Bangor

My own settings for the TJC...

...have only generated one runner for me to consider...

...but you can apply your own (slightly less exacting?) settings to this report to open up more options. The Armed Man hasn't raced for six months and was bang out of form last Autumn, he's up in class and runs in a competitive (for the grade) 15-runner handicap at Thirsk, so I'll swerve that race and focus instead upon the best of the 'free' races, the 3.35 Aintree, the 9-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ Liverpool Hurdle (13 flights) over a left-handed 3m½f on Good To Soft ground and here are the contenders seeking to go home with a cool £140k...

Four of this field have come here via the Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, filling three of the top four places...

Paisley Park has yet to re-appear and Koshari, who runs here, was seventh in that race some 3.5 lengths further behind Champ. Based on that contest 23 days ago, it's little surprise that Flooring Porter, Thyme Hill and Champ head the market, but I want to see if (a) the result/order might be different here or (b) an unfancied runner might defy the odds and gatecrash the party.

Koshari, Sire du Berlais and Thomas Darby look weakest on form, but none of these are mugs or out of their depth. All have raced in the past 24 days, bar Thomas Darby and Molly Olly's Wishes, but even they ran seven weeks ago.

Ashdale Bob and Roi Mage are the only ones without a win at a similar trip to this one, whilst Champ, Koshari and Thyme Hill have all won over course and distance in the past, with the latter winning this very race in 2021.

Flooring Porter (rated 164), Champ (162) and Thyme Hill (161) are best off at the weights, further backing up the suggestion that it's a three-horse race. The last 17 renewals of this race have gone to horses aged 9 or younger, which isn't good news for Champ from that trio, nor is it good for Koshari, Roi Mage or Sire du Berlais.

ASHDALE BOB
Has finished 1132 in four Grade 2 contests so far and was a decent third on the Gr 3 Coral Cup at Cheltenham 24 days ago, but has yet to make the frame at Grade 1 and I doubt that'll change here.

CHAMP
A 4-time (from 7) winner at this level including the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in 2020 and more recently the Long Walk Hurdle (where Thyme Hill was the runner-up by 1.75L) on return. A decent third to Flooring Porter last time out and the extra yardage/better ground should help here.

FLOORING PORTER
Was allowed a soft/easy lead in that Cheltenham race last time out, putting both Thyme Hill & Champ to the sword as he retained the Stayers' Hurdle, gaining revenge over Klassical Dream who had beaten him by two lengths in Leopardstown's Christmas Hurdle. He'd probably prefer it a bit softer here, but the trip is no issue and if allowed to dominate again, would be the one to beat.

KOSHARI
Was a surprise (80/1!) winner of a Class 2 handicap here over course and distance two starts ago back in November, but this is probably too much for him to handle. He was well beaten in that Stayers' Hurdle and although he did land a Grade 2 at Punchestown as recently as last May, he's not really a Class 1 runner in my eyes and he'd do better over a shorter trip going right handed.

ROI MAGE
Won 7 of 33 over fences in France, but his career hurdling record stands at just one win from twelve and could only manage to finish 5th of 7, beaten by 27 lengths at Grade 3 in his last effort over hurdles. Probably better off in stayers' chases.

SIRE DU BERLAIS
Was a 3.5 length runner-up behind Flooring Porter in last year's Stayers' hurdle but bypassed the race this year for a crack at the Pertemps, but never really recovered from being badly hampered early on and ended up just 11th of 22, some 11 lengths behind the winner. He's better than that, even if recent results say other wise and I can see him running a big race here, but it'd have to be his best for some time to get close.

THOMAS DARBY
Won the three-mile Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury 3 starts ago, back in November but could only manage 4th of 8 in the Long Walk at Ascot 22 days later, as Chap beat Thyme Hill in the 1-2. He didn't enjoy Haydock's traditional heavy ground when pulled up in February and looks up against it here. He's a decent sort, a solid Grade 2/3 runner, but I don't fancy his chances today

THYME HILL
Has finished 2122 in four Grade 1 starts since winning the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in 2020, including landing this race last year. Trip and ground conditions are ideal for him, but if he wants to reverse the placings from LTO, he can't let Flooring Porter have it all his own way.

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES
This 8 yr old mare has progressed really nicely over last 18 months, winning at Class 3, Class 2, 2 x Listed and then a grade 2 at Ascot in January. last seen seven weeks ago at Haydock in the same race as Thomas Darby, she suffered the same fate as her rival and struggled with the heavy ground late on, having ran pretty well for much of the race. An unlikely winner here, but a 7lbs allowance and further progression could see her feature closer to the front than the back.

These are good horses and I expect to see plenty of green on Instant Expert...

The likes of Ashdale Bob (Class), Roi Mage (experience), Sire du Berlais (Class/Distance) and Thomas Darby (generally) look the weakest when we consider overall career stats, but so that we're not leaning/relying on old data, let's look at how they've performed more recently...

...and that has merely reinforced my view that I want to be focusing on the the Stayers' Hurdle runners plus bottom weight Molly Olly's Wishes, but the more I look at it, the more it's the three-horse race we thought it might be.

We know that Flooring Porter was afforded a soft/easy lead at Cheltenham, but that's the way he likes to run his races, whilst both Champ and Thyme Hill prefer to sit much further back...

Molly Olly's Wishes, however, also likes to get on with things and she might cause the likely fav some discomfort if she decides to press him early. If FP responds by setting a stronger gallop, this could well play into the hands of his rivals, based on past 3m hurdles contests here on good to soft ground...

So, essentially, Molly's best chances of making the frame are to put some distance between here and the others making herself hard to catch, but Flooring Porter might ruin his own chances by going with her.

Summary

The 1-2-4 from the Stayers' Hurdle should be the 1-2-3 here and whilst there's very little between Thyme Hill and Champ, I expect the former to just about retain his hold over the latter. Much will depend on how hard Flooring Porter has to work to assert himself at the head of affairs and if Molly Olly's Wishes takes him on, it could well cost him the race.

So, with the above in mind and my feeling that he'd prefer softer ground, I can't back him at 15/8 or shorter, even if I do think he's the most likely winner. Neither Thyme Hill (3/1) nor Champ (4/1) are long enough to back E/W, so I'll do some reverse forecast/tricasts etc and also back Molly Olly's Wishes at 22/2 E/W with Sporting Index, who are paying 5 places. (Sky are paying 4 at 20/1 too)

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.