Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/06/2022

Saturday's free feature, the Trainer/Jockey combo (TJC) report brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column, but as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information

To complement the daily free feature, we also have this selection of fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.35 Chester
  • 2.05 Limerick
  • 2.55 Downpatrick
  • 3.10 Hexham
  • 3.40 York
  • 7.15 Leicester

My personal settings (you get to choose your own!) for the T...

have only generated one runner on the 14-day form tab...

and two others on the one year form tab...

Ventura Express runs in a 21-runner 6f charge and those races hold very little interest to me, but I do want to have a quick look at my other two possibles, starting with CHALLET, a 5yr old gelding who runs in the 2.35 York, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good ground...

The stat box underneath the card entry should be self-explanatory, so I won't labour those points. The card tells me that Challet has placed on each of his last two runs, but ran off this mark of 85 at Class 4 when last seen just over four weeks ago and as such steps up two classes here, but has previously won over course and distance.

In fact, his record at York reads 1133 after than latest run over this track/trip. he has one win and one third place at C&D and the same record here over a mile, so he clearly likes this type of trip on the Knavesmire. He has made the frame in 12 (60%) of his 20 Flat handicap runs, winning 5 925%) times in the process, but has fared better over a mile than over 7f and his record at Class 2 isn't great with just one placed finish from three attempts. This failure to win at this level is highlighted here in Instant Expert...

That said, he'll be happy with the underfoot conditions based on his 4 wins and 2 further places from 11 runs on good ground. He's drawn dead centre here in stall 5 today and he generally likes to set the pace or at the very least race prominently. This isn't exactly reflected in his 4-race profile, because he has two mid-division runs from the end of last season on unsuitable soft ground and his seasonal reappearance this season, but trust me, he's normally up with the pace...

So, up with the pace from a middle draw? 
Is that good for 7f at York?

Well, yes! It's ideal for him, short of reverting back to mid-div running, he has the ideal pace/draw makeup to do well here on a track he likes. I'm just concerned that he's not a Class 2 animal.

*

Just ten minutes after Challet sets out, another 5 yr old gelding, CURTIZ will be in the stalls on the Roodee for the 2.45 Chester, another 9-runner, left handed, flat handicap on good ground, but this one is for Class 4, 4yr olds and over tackling 1m2½f...

So, he's drawn 8 of 9, which isn't considered ideal in Chester folklore (but we'll check the stats later!) and although only sixth on seasonal reappearance 33 days ago and a failure at the end of last season, he had won three on the bounce. He has won over this distance previously and his jockey, David Probert is a dab hand around these parts.

Curtiz is one from one under today's jockey and actually won five of eleven starts in 2021, winning on both turf and the A/W, but he does prefer good ground. His best form has, however, been over 1m/1m½f and at Classes 5 & 6, as verified by Instant Expert...

He's also 6lbs higher than his last win and as you can see, will probably be unsuited by both the class and the distance of the race. With that in mind, we now need to see whether his high draw is going to be another issue for a horse who seems to fluctuate between prominent running and hold-up tactics...

Starting with the draw and the old adage about being drawn low at Chester is readily highlighted here...

...which isn't great news, but if he was to maintain the hold-up tactics from his last two (admittedly unsuccessful) outings, then that might be his best chance here...

...but the pace/draw heat map doesn't inspire confidence for a high drawn runner...

Summary

I don't fancy either of these to go and win and I think Curtiz is really up against it at Chester and will probably be nearer the back than the front, so I'll be giving him a wide berth.

As for Challet at York, it's slightly more complicated, because he's suited by the going, has a good record at the track, but is probably going to be outclassed. I don't see him beating the likes of Lion Tower or Boardman, which means he's in a fight with the likes of Maywake for the final place. I prefer Maywake to Challet, but that's a moot point anyway, as the pair are both priced around the 9/2 mark which is too short for an E/W bet.

I'll keep my money in my pocket this time.

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.