Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 12/02/22

Saturday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the rather splendid Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing and clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

My own settings for the TJC Report are fairly demanding and have only generated one horse for me to consider...

...which I'll obviously take a look at, but thankfully we've also got the daily 'free' races for everyone, too and they are...

  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 3.08 Uttoxeter
  • 3.43 Uttoxeter
  • 4.05 Lingfield
  • 4.45 Newbury

The Lingfield race only has four runners and normally I shy away from them, but (a) it looks a decent, competitive affair and (b) it combines the free feature with the free race list, so let's assess the chances of Messrs Furtado and O'Neill in the 4.05 Lingfield, a 4-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile and a half on standard polytrack...

As you can see, I've expanded the stat boxes to show what the red numbers were highlighting and despite the small field, this could well be a decent race. All four come here in good form, Celtic Art and Crimson King both won LTO, Trevolli has won his last three and despite going 17 races over almost 11 months without a win, Protected Guest has seven consecutive top-3 finishes under his belt.

Celtic Art makes just a second start for Jeremy Scott, having been a runner-up at this class/course/distance on New Year's Eve prior to stepping up to Class 2 for a C&D win LTO. He's up 2lbs for that win (beat Protected Guest by half a length), but back down in class. Looks all set for another bold show, likes to be up with the pace and his yard is in good form. Definite player here.

Protected Guest was outpaced late on in that contest but now re-opposes 1lb better off, also down in class, He's running well right now, but not quite good enough to land a race and is now on a run of 17 straight losses since winning here over course and distance almost eleven months ago. Has been a consistent close loser of late and whilst he might not be the worst of the four here, I don't see him breaking that cold spell just yet.

Trevolli represents the in-form Furtado/O'Neill combo from the TJC and this horse has been terrific of late. He'd done OK for a couple of trainers, but since a switch to the Furtado yard in November, he has finished 2312111 including 12111 with Kieran O'Neill on board. He was an even money winner here at class/course/distance a month ago holding off the re-opposing Crimson King by half a length. Although he's up 3lbs for that win, he's actually 3lbs better off than the runner-up today, thanks to jockey allowances, so I'd expect to reaffirm those placings.

Crimson King completes the line-up, getting weight all round and although he was beaten by Trevolli a month ago, he has since won here over course and distance off that same mark effectively franking Trevolli's effort. He's up 2lbs here to a career high Flat/Aw mark and with a 3lb claimer replacing 7lb jockey, this is much tougher, but he loves the track here and has results of 311321 here inc 31321 over course and distance.

So, you really could make a case for all of them. If we split the field in two, I'd say that Celtic Art holds Protected Guest from LTO, as does Trevolli over Crimson King, effectively giving us Celtic Art / Trevolli vs Crimson King / Protected Guest and Instant Expert would appear to back up this assertion...

...although Celtic Art's 0/4 at Class 3 might be an obvious starting point. Closer inspection show 3 places from 4, so his form at this level isn't disastrous. Protected Guest, however, has just 1 win and 1 further place at this level and whilst his place numbers for Course /Distance are batter, he does look like the weak link here. Trevolli is the standout, of course and Crimson King just looks steady. No really big weight differences to ponder here, though.

The trip is a mile and a half and with them only setting off four abreast, the draw really shouldn't be the deciding factor here, but we should check the stats, just in case. I expanded the number of runners to 5 to give us a slightly bigger sample size...

...and whilst stall 2 hasn't won as many as the others, to no rhyme or reason behind it and the place results are almost on a par with the other, so I'm going to call no bias here. Race tactics, however, might tell a different story. Based on their last four outings...

...I'd expect the two I already like best to be setting the pace and if they put it on early, could easy turn it into a two-horse contest and the stats say that's exactly what they should do...

...with Crimson King's hold-up style preferred to Protected Guest's mid-div positioning.

Summary

A tricky little contest on paper that i think I've worked out. I said earlier that..."Celtic Art holds Protected Guest from LTO, as does Trevolli over Crimson King, effectively giving us Celtic Art / Trevolli vs Crimson King / Protected Guest" and I stand by that. I also think that Cromson King beats Protected Guest via form and pace profiling, leaing me with just the tough job of calling the winner.

Trevolli is the form horse for the form yard and the TJC combo, but I've got this nagging doubt that Celtic Art's class 2 win LTO might be the best run any of these have produced so far and that might just tip it here and at 9/4 there might just be a little juice in Celtic Art's price.

Reverse forecast too, of course 😉

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