Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 12/03/22

Our final free offering of the week is the Trainer Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, which  brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following free races of the day...

  • 1.40 Navan
  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 2.21 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 4.16 Hereford
  • 5.25 Gowran Park

If I'm totally honest, I don't really fancy profiling any of the six free races for different reasons (quality/field size mainly), but thankfully my settings for the TJC Report...

...have yielded me two horses to consider :  one from course one-year form...

...and one from the course five year stats...

So, let's start at the 1.46 Lingfield, a 12-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile and a half on standard polytrack, where top weight He's A Latchico looks like this on the card...

As you can see, he comes here on a hat-trick having raced and won ten days ago. He's a winner at 1m4f and has also scored here at Lingfield, but steps up in class today. The stats below his entry are self explanatory and are very encouraging and his geegeez SR figure of 83 is the best in the race.

He won a Class 6, 1m2f handicap here two starts/five weeks ago, running on well late on from a prominent position to win by a length and three quarters off a mark of 61, a figure raised 5lbs to 66 for his next/last run, another Class 6 A/W handicap, but this time at Kempton over today's 1m4f trip. Another prominent run saw him take the lead inside the final 2f and he ran on well again to score by 2.5 lengths and the manner of those two wins suggests that another 7lb rise still might not anchor him.

He was well down the field (10th of 12, 4.75 lengths) on his only previous crack at Class 5 racing, but that was here on the 3rd Jan over an inadequately short mile and coming off the back of a 14-month absence, so he probably needed the run, as shown by his figures of 411 since. That Class 5 race is the only blemish on a decent showing on Instant Expert...

As you can see, he's been drawn in stall 1, but without disputing the importance of the draw in A/W or Flat racing, I do believe it has less of an influence over longer trips, when horses have plenty of time to undo the draw. I'm ore concerned about them missing the break from whichever stall they're in. However, for full disclosure/clarity, here's how the draw stats look...

...and a low draw isn't a bad place to be, but it's a race that will surely lend itself more to quality/race tactics! We know that He's A Latchico has raced prominently in his two recent runs/wins, but according to the pace stats, that's not always the best approach...

Mind you, with an IV of only just shy of 1.00 (at 0.94), it's hardly disastrous. What it does tell us is that it's difficult to win here from off the pace and our pace/draw heatmap says this horse could have had a worse combination and based on the "green is good" mantra, he's not too badly off here...

*

Our second race takes place around 25 miles North West of Lingfield, where King's Knight will tackle the 7.00 Kempton, an 8 runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on Standard To Slow polytrack...

Charles Hills' 5yr old entire was last seen competing in a £30,000 contest at Sakhir, Bahrain a little over three weeks ago when he finished third of sixteen runners, touched off by just a head and a neck behind Godolphin's 99-rated Silent Film who was completing a hat-trick that had started in a Class 3 handicap at Sandown last June, from which the runner-up has also won twice, both at Class 3.

King's Knight runs off just 86 here, so to get that close to a 99-rated was a great effort and when you consider that his best UK run was a runner-up finish beaten by a neck at Chelmsford off 87 in a Class 2, 7f handicap last August, you'd have to say that this was within him. That was only his second effort on the A/W, having previously won over 7f at Lingfield in a Class 4 contest, so we're not going to get too much info from Instant Expert...

...so although there's not much data to work with, we know that he can win at this grade/trip and if going to win, he's going to have to do it from stall 8 of 8, which isn't actually too bad a place to start from...

And from what I gather, whilst he's been over in Bahrain, he has tended to be waited with in mid-division for a run and that's how his second to last UK contest went too when narrowly beaten at Chelmsford, so in terms of pace score, I'd probably/tentatively say he was a "2", which could actually work out very well for him based on...

and

which suggests his pace/draw balance is as good as he's going to get here.

Summary

Two potential selections and I like them both. He's A Latchico seems to have everything going for him, ticks all the boxes and I've got him as clear best in race. Sadly, so do the bookies, but it didn't take a massive leap to get to that point.

I suppose the question here is whether you're comfortable at backing a horse whose best price at 4.15pm was 5/4. He's too short for me to want to get heavily invested, I was rather hoping for 2/1 or thereabouts, so I'll not back him even though I expect him to win. Others of interest here from an E/W perspective are Sea of charm at around 10/1 and Danni California at 12's, especially if your bookie pays four places, although Helian might be the biggest danger to the fav.

Not so clear cut at Kempton later, but I do still have King's Knight as my pick here, narrowly ahead of the likes of Gobi Sunset and Dashing Dick and a price of 4/1 is probably about right, so I'll have a small piece of that.

 

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