Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 15/01/22

We unlock a different Geegeez GOLD feature for all readers every day and for Saturdays, it's the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which is pretty self explanatory and brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

As well as a free daily feature, we also give FREE access to a selection of races each day where all GOLD functionality has been unlocked. That means you'll be able to use the Full Form Filters, Instant Expert, Pace and, for flat races, Draw features for the following...

  • 12.27 Wetherby
  • 1.32 Kempton
  • 3.00 Warwick
  • 5.15 Chelmsford
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

My settings for the TJC report...

...haven't generated many possible bets, so I'm going back to the free races, of which the middle one is the highest rated. There are fifteen scheduled to run in the 3.00 Warwick, which is a few too many for my comfort zone, but we should stretch ourselves occasionally, plus we might find a nicely-priced E/W prospect. It's a Grade 3, 5yo+ handicap chase worth a decent £56,950 and to win, they'll need to tackle 22 fences over a testing left-handed 3m5f on soft ground, which might not suit many!

What I want to do here is quickly eliminate a good chunk of the field, hopefully leaving me with an E/W bet (or two) with most firms paying five places and the first one I'm discarding is Grace a Vous Enki. His form since coming over to the UK hasn't been good, he's up from Class 4 and a Grade 3 isn't the place for a handicap debutant, as far as I'm concerned. Captain Tommy, No Rematch and The Hollow Ginge look the weakest from a recent form perspective, so I'm discounting them too, as I head straight to Instant Expert...

...where Head To The Stars and Eclair Surf both look like they'll struggle on soft ground, Padleyourowncanoe has a poor record at Class 1, but most of those to have tried track or trip seem to have handed them well enough. But I have trying to show you that you can get through a big field quickly, so the three I've just mentioned are gone, as we consider the pace aspect of the race. Our pace analyser doesn't actually have a great deal of data to work with/from for this race...

...but I don't think I want to be backing a hold-up horse here. I'm not deterred about a mid-division runner though, as the sample size isn't big enough to be conclusive. So, based on how they've run of late...

Jerrysback is a confirmed hold-up horse, so that's likely to be an issue, as it might well be for Corach Rambler. I did actually like the latter to get involved here, but coming from the back over 3m5f on soft ground in such a high quality race might be tough when up in class and weight and if I'm being true to the process, then Achille will probably have to go too, which again is a shame.

This leaves me with (in card order) Notachance, Minella Encore, Chirico Vallis, Gericault Roque and Game Line from which I'll make a selection (or two). I'm well aware that such a quick superficial runthrough might have already discarded the winner, but I hope to still a profitable angle.

Summary

I've left myself with five (same number as places paid by the bookies) to consider, I could (but probably won't) say back all five or equally likely say back none, so let's have a quick look.

Notachance has made the frame in half of his ten starts over fences, winning three times including winning this race off the same mark last year. He loves soft ground, gets the trip readily and should have a great chance of making the frame. 10/1 is a little longer than I expected, so I'll have a small E/W bet here.

Minella Encore won by 24 lengths and 18 lengths either side of being pulled up on unsuitably good ground at Cheltenham in November. Has finished 114232 in six soft ground runs, but isn't getting any younger/fitter at 10 yrs old and is up in class here and seems to be carrying too much weight off 137. Could still run to a place, but I'd want a bit more than 14/1.

Chirico Vallis is in a similar boat at the age of ten and his chasing record suggests he either wins (3 of 10), fails to finish (2 x F and 2 x PU) or doesn't make the frame. I don't see him winning here, so something needs to change to make him get placed and I'm not entirely sure that stepping up in class with a 5lb rise for an all-out holding on win over 4.5 furlongs shorter is going to help him, so he's a no from me and it's probably why you can get 25/1 about him.

Gericault Roque is probably the one to beat here, as he's always there or thereabouts and any horse who has beaten him so far has had to make the frame to do so. For me, he definitely makes the frame, but at 9/2, he's no E/W bet for me and although I think he's one of the more likely winners, they're not attractive odds. They're fair odds, nothing more and I certainly wouldn't talk you out of backing him, but I won't be.

Game Line is a strange one, he has the profile for a sfot ground stayer, he's experienced, he's getting weight all round despite winning three of seven last year, yet he's the 40/1 outsider. And that's because he's a Class 3 horse at best, trying Class 1 racing for the first time, he's got a new (short on winners) jockey on board and his best form usually comes a little later in the season. Yet I'm still weirdly drawn to him, he could well make the frame, you know and from a prominent racing position could be handily placed to outrun his odds, so I think I will have a (very) small dabble at 40's.

Good Luck however you play it.

Chris

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.