Racing Insights, Saturday 18/05/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

• 1.50 Newbury
• 2.35 Thirsk
• 3.40 Navan
• 4.20 Thirsk
• 5.05 Bangor
• 5.35 Doncaster

And of the twelve UK races in total from above, I'm going to look at the highest rated which is the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes aka the 1.50 Newbury, a 9-runner, 4yo+ flat contest over a left-handed 1m4f on good/good to soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a battle between Middle Earth and Salt bay for the right to finish second behind the King's horse Desert Hero, but things don't always pan out as they first appear, so let's dive into the recent form first...

All nine have won at least one of their last six, including German import So Moonstruck (3rd in the German Derby LTO), who makes a UK debut today. Bolster is three from five and won last time out, as did Middle Earth, who has won three of his last four starts, whilst Maxi King arrives here seeking a fourth win on the bounce.

Maxi King is upped in class here, though, as are Bolster and Cemhaan. Middle Earth might be in need of a run after a 225-day lay-off, whilst it's over 22 months since So Moonstruck was last seen, but the other seven have all raced in the last four weeks.

So far, only three of these have raced here at Newbury for a collective 0 wins from 4, although Salt Bay has made the frame on both attempts. Cemhaan, Desert hero, Maxi King and Middle Earth have already won over today's trip according to Instant Expert...

...where Middle Earth seems to be the one best suited so far, off an admittedly small number of relevant runs. Flying Honours has some decent numbers there, too, but finished last of 11 on his sole 2023 start and was last of seven on his only run this year. Desert Hero is proven at the trip, but would prefer more cut in the ground. That said, his place stats are excellent...

...and on those alone, he appears to steal Middle Earth's thunder and both King of Conquest and Flying Honours look vulnerable. Desert hero is the highest-rated runner in the race at 113, which technically makes him at least 3lbs 'well-in' off equal weights, whilst Maxi King is rated some 17lbs lower than Desert Hero

Somewhat unusually for a trip of 1m4f, there does seem to be an advantage to be had from the draw, as those drawn lowest have fared much better than others...

...which is good news for the likes of Salt Bay, Maxi King and Bolster, but there's no huge pace bias here...

...which is probably just as well, considering there doesn't appear to be much between most of the field in terms of their pace profile...

Bolster might well lead the way here from stall 3 and Cemhaan might well try to track across from stall 8, but the lack of general pace will play into the hands of the better runners who can just set about their own race and with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that high-drawn mid-division runners fare really well here, that could be useful for Desert Hero...

Summary

This has to be Desert Hero's race to win or lose, hasn't it? I think he's the best in the field, he's also the highest-rated and after finishing third in the St Leger (1m6½f) last year and only beaten by a head in a Group 3 over 1m2f at Sandown recently after a 223 day absence, the return to 1m4f should see him back in the winners' enclosure.

Sadly, we're not getting rich off him at a best price of 11/8 and with Middle Earth and Salt Bay next in the market at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, I agree with the bookies' 1-2-3 today, but I do slightly prefer Salt Bay to Middle Earth. Neither are backable as E/W prospects (but if forecasts/exactas or tricasts/trifectas are you thing, who knows?), so if I was going to pull one from the pack for a small wager, it'd possibly be Bolster at 18/1.

Enjoy your weekend, folks, Wembley beckons for us Bolton boys.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Monday 9th September 2024
• Racing Insights, Saturday 07/09/24
• Racing Insights, Friday 06/09/24
• Racing Insights, Thursday 05/09/24
• Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/09/24