Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/06/22

The end of another busy racing week and each Saturday we open up the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report to ALL readers. It does pretty much what the name suggests and highlights the collective form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column, but as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

The settings for the TJC report are fully customisable and here's how I have mine set up...

...and they've generated just two horses to consider for Saturday in the one-year course form...

...so not much to go on, but there's always the daily free racecards...

  • 2.07 Newmarket
  • 3.27 Perth
  • 3.34 Ayr
  • 3.40 Ascot
  • 4.38 Redcar
  • 6.35 Haydock

...from which, I think we'll head to Royal Ascot for the 3.40 Ascot, better known as the Group 2, Hardwicke Stakes, where eight 4yo+ runners will tackle a right handed 1m4f on good to firm ground in the hope of landing a prize of almost £135k...

As you'd exepct/hope for a race of this calibre, there's some serious form on display. Solid Stone & Third Realm both won LTO, Layfayette has won his last three, whilst Living Legend and Hurricane Lane have both won three of their last four. Away He Goes is only one of these stepping up in class and also one of just two (along with Hurricane Lane) without a recent run. All bar Mostahdaf and Solid Stone are winners over 1m4f, but none of the field have won here before.

It's a non-handicap, of course, so they all carry the same weight, but Hurricane Lane is rated 6lbs better at 123 than both next best Broome and Mostahdaf at 117 with Layfayette rated just 109! This suggests that Hurricane Lane is well in and he's essentially the elephant in the room here, as he's likely to go off at 4/5 or even shorter. I'm going to quickly assess the race and see if I can find reasons to lay him or try to find a nicely priced placer for forecasts/tricast etc purposes, so let's look at the field starting with...

AWAY HE GOES who won two of his first three starts, but is just 1 from 8 since and has finished 5527 since winning at Doncaster just over nine months ago. Coming off a long break and others appeal more.

BROOME was the runner-up in this race last year, but was only 4th of 5, beaten by 9.5 lengths over course and distance at Group 1 five weeks later, before bedding down for the winter. Looked like he needed the run at the Curragh last month after a ten month break, when just 5th of 8 and despite running well in this race last year, is better at 1m2f.

HURRICANE LANE was third in last years Derby, the only one of his six UK races he didn't win! He won a Group 2 at York 13 months ago before that Derby effort and since then has landed a pair of Group 1's in the shape of the Irish Derby and the St Leger. Just one other run since wining at Doncaster saw him finish 3rd in the Arc, just ¾-length off the winner.

LAYFAYETTE was third in a 1m4f Listed race at Naas at the end of October on his final appearance of the season. At hat point he had won 4 of 17, which is reasonable but not spectacular. This season has been a revelation, as he is 3 from 3, having won at Listed, Gr 3 and Gr 2, but all at 1m2f.

LIVING LEGEND was last home of the six runners in the Coronation Cup at Epsom a fortnight ago, beaten by almost 29 lengths, but that came after a run of three straight wins that had culminated in landing the Group 2 Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes over this trip at Newmarket. That kind of form gets him involved here, the Epsom effort doesn't!

MOSTAHDAF has six wins and a runner-up finish from eight starts so far, but was beaten by five lengths last time out after being headed and outpaced over 1m2f at Sandown. He is untried beyond 1m2f and that concerns me after emptying out last time.

SOLID STONE ended 2021 by lading a pair of small field Class 1 contests over 1m2f at Windsor and then over 1m3f at Newbury : both at Group 3. He then rested for 230 days and returned at Chester six weeks ago and stepped up to this Gr 2 level to win over 1m2½f but this is a tougher/deeper race over further than he has raced before.

THIRD REALM beat the 2021 Derby winner in the 2021 Derby trial in early May of last year and then could only finish 5373 in four subsequent efforts over today's trip before finally coming back to form when winning a Listed race at Goodwood four weeks ago. The main doubt is whether the ground is too quick for him or not.

Instant Expert will probably highlight the odd deficiency rather a standout runner, I'd have thought...

...and yes, that seems to be case with doubts over Away He Goes at this level, Broome on the going and the trip and possibly Solid Stone on quicker ground.

The draw points towards the central (4 to 7) stalls having a marginal advantage...

...which will suit the fav, Hurricane Lane, nicely from gate 5, whist the pace stats say you can win from anywhere in the field, but prominent racers fare best of all...

...which based on recent outings would be better news for the top half of this graphic...

...and of the whole field, the only prominent runner berthed in stalls 4 to 7 is?

Yep, Hurricane Lane!

Summary

This has to be Hurricane Lane's race to win/lose, but you're not getting rich at odds of 4/5 unless you're already rich enough to lump on!

So, is there another angle? Well, I like Mostahdaf based on what I've seen above and Solid Stone might well open up a lead big enough to stay in the frame. Both are priced at 10/1 and might not be bad E/W bets.

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