Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 19/02/22

Our Geegeez Gold service at £36/month is worth far more than that, but we appreciate that not all our readers are in a position to subscribe, so we offer them a selection of full free racecards and a Gold feature each day and on Saturdays that feature is the brilliant Trainer Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Alongside this excellent report, we also have these 'free' races of the day...

  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 2.48 Wincanton
  • 3.30 Gowran Park
  • 3.45 Lingfield
  • 4.55 Lingfield

My settings for the TJC Report...

...have drawn a blank across the board, bar one qualifier from the 14-day hcp form...

...but with such a good recent record and a runner in a Class 1 contest, I just have to take a look at Hold That Taught's chances at Ascot.

The 2.25 race there is the Swinley Chase, a a 10-runner, Listed limited handicap chase for horses aged 5 or older, taking in a total of twenty fences over a left-handed three mile trip on soft ground. The trainer/jockey combo will be aiming for the £48,405 first prize with their 7 yr old gelding whose racecard entry looks like this...

...backed by an impressive set of stats! The yard is in form, the jockey is in form, the team are doing well together and the jockey rides Ascot well, especially for this trainer. IV numbers North of 2.00 are a really good indicator of how successful they've been.

I won't patronise/bore you by going through those stats, but I'd like to add to them by saying that the combo are 46 from 172 (26.7% SR) in handicap chases alone since the start of 2021 and that includes, of relevance today...

  • 30/103 (29.1%) on soft ground or 'worse'
  • 20/70 (28.6%) on soft
  • 15/63 (23.8%) over trips of 3m to 3m2.5f
  • 3/8 (37.5%) here at Ascot
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) in Listed handicaps

So, the numbers are very much in favour of them here, but horses win races, not stats! We'd better look at the horse himself...

He ended last season with some decent results (2323) over fences and returned from 247 days off track to win first up on Halloween at Carlisle, getting home by 3½ lengths over 3m2½f on soft ground (Class 3) off a mark of 128, but was disappointingly pulled up in the Gr 3 Welsh National at Chepstow just after Christmas and then could only finish a well-beaten (33 lengths) third of six in a novice event at Lingfield four weeks ago.

His recent poor form is compounded by him running from 3lbs out the handicap, making him effectively half a stone worse off than his last win. With regards tro course conditions here, he has run at the track before, but was unplaced, seven of his ten career starts have been on soft ground (other 3 on heavy), seven have been at 2m7½f or further and Charlie Deutsch has been in the saddle for all ten.

His three best efforts have come when fresh (won on debut, won after 247 days and a runner-up beaten by a neck after 248 days) at the start of each season, so that's a bit of a negative to go with his form and Instant Expert doesn't paint a great picture on him on all runs...

...whilst over fences...

...it is at least marginally better. The Ascot pace stats are largely inconclusive...

...other than to suggest that mid-division runners fare really badly. We can look back at how this horse raced in the past, of course and we get mixed messages from his last four runs...

...which I suppose suggests he probably won't sit in mid-div. I've looked back over all ten career runs and I'd put his average pace score at around the 2.9 mark, so I'd expect him to race quite prominently in a race that doesn't have too many wanting to force the issue. Five wins from six, second favourite, Ask Me Early is the I'd expect to set the tempo here and Hold Me Taught will probably track him along with Truckers Lodge.

Summary

Yard/rider stats in isolation and combined are excellent, but I can't see Hold That Taught even making the frame here. he looks out of sorts, he's out of the handicap and doesn't tend to go well with a recent run behind him.

It could be a really good race, but not from a betting perspective for the featured report. I think the bookies have it right with Fiddlerontheroof heading the market ahead of Ask Me Early. I expected the fav to be around the5/2 mark, so 3/1 actually represents really good value. If you wanted a longer-priced E/W punt, then you can get 9's about Caribean Boy and 12's about Fortescue and I fancy both to be involved. Hills are paying four places for those that way inclined.

Not liking the featured horse doesn't make this a worthless exercise, though. If anything, I hope it reinforces the message that the reports are just a way in to a race, not the end point.

 

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