Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 22/01/22

The Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report is Saturday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report, which has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers prefer to use certain jockeys when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row of the report will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing, whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to the User Guide for further information]

As well as a daily free GOLD feature, we also give FREE access to a selection of races each day where all GOLD functionality has been unlocked. That means you'll be able to use the Full Form Filters, Instant Expert, Pace (and, for flat races, Draw) features for the following...

  • 12.35 Ascot
  • 1.10 Ascot
  • 1.20 Lingfield
  • 3.40 Lingfield
  • 4.25 Taunton
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

My settings...

...for the TJC report have actually generated a few possibles to consider...

...and with both Alba Rose and Viola facing each other in one of our 'free races', it makes sense to take a look at the 3.40 Lingfield, the 14-runner, Class 2, Coral Winter Oaks Fillies Handicap. It's for fillies and mares aged 4 or over and it will be run over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack for a first prize of some £51,540.

Now, 14 runners isn't my idea of fun, so I'll be looking to quickly whittle the field down (using the Geegeez tools) to a more manageable size in a bid to find an E/W bet or two with most bookies paying four places (five at Skybet), so we'll start with the card...

My initial thoughts (rightly or wrongly) are to discard the top two on the Geegeez Speed ratings, as i don't feel that a Class 5 run was the right preparation for this contest. Miss Marble doesn't look particularly well treated off a mark of 91 for a handicap debut and stepping up 2.5 furlongs from her last run and quarter of a mile further than she's gone before. Enfranchise also steps up three classes and a quarter mile after only finishing 3rd of 6 here over a mile last time out. Arenas del Tiempo will probably need the run after four months off track, but watch for her being turned back out fairly quickly next time for an in-form yard, whilst I'm cutting top-weight Virgin Snow on form.

That gives me ten to look at on Instant Expert which will hopefully suggest who's cut out for the task ahead and who isn't...

On the basis of the above, I do want to be with Viola, Serenading, Umm Hurair, Lower Street and Precisely. Newgirlintown's 1 from 9 record in A/W handicaps makes her a no for me whilst the jury will remain out for the other four runners not mentioned.

We've fourteen runners strung across the track here and the draw might well have some bearing on proceedings and the stats suggest...

...that you'd rather be drawn in the lower half than the upper, although those widest of all have fared well enough, whilst the pace stats suggest that only hold-up horses fare worse than expected...

And when we combine the two sets of data...

...we're advised that a high drawn leader or a mid-drawn mid-div runner would be best suited. There isn't actually a great deal of pace in the race...

...bar the already discarded Arenas del Tiempo, who'll probably take it on from stall six before tiring and getting caught. Of the remainder, I think Alba Rose, Lower Street and Unique Cut are drawn too high, as I want to be in the first 7 or 8 stalls here, but I'll make an exception for Umm Hurair, based on both actual results and her Instant Expert numbers, so I've now whittled my fierld down to...

Timeless Soul, Pretty Sweet, Viola, Precisely, Serenading and Umm Hurair.

Summary

I quickly went from 14 to 6 and now I need to see if any are worth backing.

Timeless Soul was fourth behind Viola last out on A/W debut, beaten by 2.5 lengths and not quite seeing 1m3f out. She's now 5lbs better off with Viola, but even the drop back in trip isn't going to help in my opinion and I fancy Viola to be ahead of her again here. Pretty Sweet has yet to finish out of the frame in her 9-race career winning twice and seeing 1m4f out more than once. She ran on well to won by 2.5 lengths last time out and looks well set to be involved again here despite a 5lb rise.

Viola, of course, beat Timeless Soul (and a couple of others in this field) last time out taking her record to 3 wins and 2 places from six runs since coming back from a 201-day break last May. Her win last time out off a mark of 90 was her best win to date, but it could be that her third place in a Listed event here in October was her current high. 1m2f might be a little on the sharp side for her, but her results here at Lingfield read 2113 and I expect a good run. Precisely has shown her best form at Bath, if truth be told, although she has won over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton. Last seen finishing third of five at that track just after Christmas when a length and three lengths respectively behind the re-opposing Serenading and Umm Hurair. Much better off at the weights and she could be closer.

Serenading is now vulnerable to Precisely now that she's 2lbs worse off for a one length margin, but her extra experience might well be enough to keep her nose in front. She has a good record (4 wins, 2 places from 7) with today's jockey and with two wins and a place from her last four, she's in good nick. Last, but not least, we have Umm Hurair, the form horse, I suppose. She beat both Serenading and Precisely LTO and although a whopping 10lb rise makes life tougher, she actually won quite easily that day, completing a 23-day hat-trick. The added weight is an issue, of course, as is the small matter of a polytrack debut, but she's possibly the one to beat.

I think Umm Hurair is probably the best here, but I expect it to be tight, now she's up 10lbs and on polytrack debut and the one to cause her most grief might be course specialist Viola. Of these two, Umm Hurair is a bit short for me at 11/4 and although the most likely to win, I'd just want a bit more juice in the price, all things considered. The same, I suppose, applies to Viola at 7/1. She's probably about right at those odds, but I fancied her as an E/W option, but 7's is a stretch for me with regards to E/W betting.

Serenading could very well make the frame and I'm interested in a small play at 12's, whilst I'm also going to take Pretty Sweet at 9/1 E/W.

Good luck and enjoy your weekend! 

 

 

 

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