Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/04/22

The Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report is our free feature every Saturday and it works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

As ever, we supplement the daily feature with a selection of free, fully functional racecards open to all readers and they're going to be for the following...

  • 2.15 Limerick
  • 2.45 Leicester
  • 3.32 Sandown
  • 4.30 Limerick
  • 5.30 Limerick
  • 7.35 Doncaster

My settings for the TJC report...

...are fairly exacting and don't always throw out many qualifiers, but they have highlighted two possibles for me for Saturday...

So, let's take a look at them, starting with Via Dolorosa who appears on paper to have the harder task, tackling the 3.32 Sandown (incidentally a 'free' race), which is a 15-runner, Grade 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (24 fences) over a right-handed 3m5f on good ground...

I'll lay my cards on the table here and tell you straight away that I don't fancy this horse at all. The yard/rider might well be in great form together right now, but under today's conditions, this horse looks out of his depth...

He was a reasonable enough low level chaser in France before coming over to the UK where he has raced just 8 times, making the frame just twice but he did at least win both of those. They were at Classes 3 & 4 and mirrors the 'heights' he achieved across the Channel. To add some meat to the numbers above, his form under today's conditions reads...

  • UPP beyond 3m1f
  • 4UP0 higher than Class 3
  • 4UP6P0 in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 4UPP0 at odds of 18/1 or higher (where he'll surely be)
  • 4UPP0 when rated at 130 or higher

He comes here on the back of a 71 length defeat as 17th of 29 in a similar standard race (Topham) at Aintree a fortnight ago and based on the stats above and that run LTO, there's no need for me to waste my time or yours doing a full race analysis here, I've already seen enough to tell me keep my money in my pocket with Via Doloroso.

Mille Miglia, however, should have more of a fighting chance in the 4.20 Haydock, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Flat Handicap over a left-handed 1m2½f on good ground...

This 4 yr old filly makes a seasonal re-appearance after a break of 239 days since making all to win over 1m2f at Newmarket almost 8 months ago, closing a season where she got better with each run starting with a 5th place finish in a Novice event here at Haydock and ending the season with finishes of 321 in 1m2f handicaps.

We already know from the TJC report that the trainer & jockey have enjoyed some success over the last twelve months, but closer inspection shows the yard have a 40%+ place strike rate over the past month and that Friday's only runner was a winner. Clive Cox also has the C5 icon next to his name, denoting a good record here at Haydock, having won 16 of 70 (22.9% SR) here over the last five years.

This filly has only made six starts to date, so Instant Expert might not tell us too much that we don't already know...

...other than all five runs last season were at this grade and she's now up 4lbs for that win last August. She missed the break at Bath two starts ago, but that run aside , she does like to be up with the pace and when getting off the mark LTO, the race report said...'made all, ridden over 1f out, ran on...' and this is backed up by our pace data...

and based on past races here at Haydock, she'd be advised to adopt similar tactics if she wants to win...

...whilst her draw in stall 7 of 10 might also be a positive...

All of which seems to suggest she has a decent chance here and those pace/draw stats look like this when combined...

...giving even more confidence to those drawn high who like to get on with things.

Summary

I've been pretty clear about how much chance I give Via Dolorosa, but now (5.00pm) is the first time I've looked at the market and the fact that he's currently the 66/1 outsider of a 15-runner field speaks for itself. I'll pass on this one.

As for Mille Miglia, I think she has an excellent chance here, but might very well need the run after such a long absence. She's currently 9/2 and I expected her to be a little shorter, so I'll have a small play there from a perspective of perceived value. Wot's The Wifi Code and Carey Street have both ran well and won already this spring and should run big races here. The latter looks particularly overpriced at 13/2, I had him at 7/2 or 4/1! Time will tell, of course!

Enjoy your weekend, folks.

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