Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...
30-day form...
1-year form...
and course 5-year form...
In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...
- 1.23 Chepstow
- 2.03 Fairyhouse
- 2.40 Fairyhouse
- 3.20 Southwell
- 3.50 Fairyhouse
We have TJC runners taking each other on in a couple of Kempton races, but it's not everyday that the list of free races has a Group race, so it'd almost be rude to not cover the 3.20 Southwell, the 6-runner, Group 3, Winter Derby Stakes over a left-handed 1m3f on standard tapeta...
The Winter Derby has been run over 1m2f on Polytrack at Lingfield for as long as I care to remember, but we've a new home, surface and trip this year, featuring half a dozen runners with just two previous visits to Southwell between them!
Tyrrhenian Sea was a winner last time out, as was Lord North, who not only won last year's Winter Derby but followed it up with a Group 1 turf success at Meydan, meaning he comes here on a hat-trick. All six have won at least one of their last six with LTO runner-up Military Order winning three times.
He also gets a 1lb weight pull from his five rivals, but is up in class here, as is Claymore. Eydon makes a yard debut for Andrew Balding here, some 665 days after a decent fourth of fifteen in 2022's 2000 Guineas and last year's Winter Derby winner Lord North also returns from a lengthy break of eleven months.
As I said earlier, this field has just two previous Southwell runs, as Military Order finished second (headed in the final strides) and last of six over course and distance in the trial for this race a month ago...
This lack of course/distance form is, as you'd expect, highlighted in Instant Expert...
...which suggests the action will be in the bottom half of the card/alphabet, as indeed do the corresponding place stats...
Forest of Dean is a definite no from me with those figures, I'm reluctant to back Eydon after a 665-day break, even if he was excellent in the 2000 Guineas back in 2022 and Claymore has the best part of five lengths to make up on Military Order, so I agree with Instant Expert here about which half of the field I want. Of those three runners, the draw and PRB3 stats suggest that Lord North and Tyrrhenian Sea would be better suited...
...although I'm always a little wary of relying on draw data over trips beyond 10f and/or in races of just six runners as the width between stall 1 and stall 6 shouldn't be the reason for losing and if truth be told, stall 1 has fared well enough in those races above...
...so after the draw data, I'm keeping three in play. As for the pace tactics of those 30-odd races above, it has paid to neither go off too quickly nor to sit out back, as it is the prominent/mid-division runners who have prospered the most from both a win and place perspective...
,,,and if we then check the field's last few races...
...it would be Eydon, Lord North and Military Order ticking those boxes.
Summary
I decided quite early in the piece that (alphabetically) Lord North, Military Order and Tyrrhenian Sea would be the half of the field I wanted to be with and there's no disputing that not only is Lord North the class act here, but he also ticks all the boxes during the analysis above. So I suppose the question is whether you want to back him to win at 5.40pm's fairly slim odds of 7/4, having not raced for eleven months and with no tapeta experience.
Military Order is the one I think who will run him closest on the back of a good run here in the trial over course and distance, but his odds of 9/4 would perversely seem to offer even less value. The problem here is that Eydon & Claymore are 25/1 and 40/1 respectively, meaning the sharp end of the market is even sharper than expected. I was hoping the top two would be priced around 2/1 and 3/1 and as such, Military Order would be the value play, but at 7/4 and 9/4, I'd have to put Lord North forward as best value, although it's a low bar!
Hopefully the above makes some form of sense, but these are my 1-2 and I suspect the reverse forecast won't pay much either. Fingers crossed, Lord North might drift out to 2's.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
