Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 25/06/22

Saturday's free feature, the Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for our readers. Essentially, some trainers will turn to certain jockeys when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column...but as always, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to this report, Saturday's free racecards will cover...

  • 1.00 Newmarket
  • 1.25 Curragh
  • 3.30 Newcastle
  • 4.03 Newcastle
  • 4.38 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Doncaster

My own settings (you get to choose!) for the T

...have generated three possible runners of initial interest...

...but that interest soon waned in the five year course runners, as they're set to run in fields of 19 and 20 runners respectively and that's not my bag. Aryaah, on the other hand, runs in a 4-runner race! But I will head North East to take a look at the 4.38 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard to slow tapeta, where I'll try to quickly whittle down the field to a (hopefully) small shortlist...

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As ever, my first port of call is the card, which holds loads of useful info for us starting with...
...the form, where only Biggles won LTO and he's won three on the bounce. Boosala, The Attorney and Aleezdancer are the others with a relatively recent win under their belts.

Form horse Biggles is up two classes here, whilst Gioia Cieca, The Attorney and Rhythm Master (on handciap debut) all step up one grade, whilst Sir Dancealot drops down a level for a yard debut after some 697 days off the track. Boosala has been off 50 days and Rhythm Master for 77, but the remainder have all been seen in the last five weeks.

The afore-mentioned Rhythm Master is one of just two runners (along with Aleezdancer) yet to win over today's trip, whilst Safe Voyage, Gioia Cieca and Zip are the only course winners, having actually won over track and trip.

Gioia Cieca might well have won here over C&D, but it was almost 17 months ago at Class 5 and based on him now stepping up in class after last place of 20 recently, I'm eliminating him from my enquiries. I'm also discarding Sir Dancealot, who hasn't raced for almost two years and I feel he'll need a run (or two). I'm not doubting his ability, he's a 4-time Group 2 winner, but he could well be rusty.

This means I'm quickly down to seven runners on Instant Expert, our race compatibility tool...

...where aside from never having run on std to slow (but has 2 wins and a place on std) Safe Voyage is the eyecatcher. Aleezdancer's record at Class 2 isn't good and he'd probably prefer 6f, so I'm counting him out here. Rhythm Master won on debut and has lost all seven since. He hasn't made the frame in four runs at 7f and on A/W debut, I think I'm going to overlook him here too.

This leaves me with two low drawn runners in stalls 1 & 2, central stalls 5 & 6, plus high-draw Zip out in berth 8 and the draw stats for similar past races...

...suggest that Safe Voyage and Boosala in 5 & 6 are best positioned here. From a pace perspective, out field's last few runs have looked like this...

...hinting at Biggles setting the pace and Boosala & Zip being held-up for a run with The Attorney & Safe Voyage somewhere between the two. Those races from the draw stats above only really rule out the mid-division runners...

...which is where you'll find a couple of my four discards...

The pace/draw heatmap reinforces the data above...

...and if your horse is drawn centrally and doesn't hang too far off the pace, then you've every chance. Of the five I've still got under consideration, I think Zip looks most vulnerable, so I'll cut him loose here.

Summary

We've quickly gone from nine to these four : Biggles, Boosala, Safe Voyage and The Attorney.

Biggles is the form horse here, but all that form is at Kempton, his sole tapeta run wasn't good and he's up two classes and six pounds here, which makes life tough. Boosala, on the other hand, I quite like. He was only beaten by a nose over a similar trip at this grade at Chester last time out and runners behind him that day have gone on to win and a similar effort here could be enough.

Safe Voyage is of interest, even if not in the best form. he likes it here (2 wins and a place from 6 over C&D), gets on well with his jockey and could bounce back here, whilst The Attorney always tends to be there or thereabouts, but doesn't win often enough and probably won't here either on tapeta debut. If he goes well, though, he'd be one to be on next time out.

Of the four, I'd be more inclined to back Boosala to win, but at 13/8 to 15/8, I wouldn't be alone and that doesn't appeal to me. The 14/1 E/W about Safe Voyage, however, is too big to ignore.

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