Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 26/03/22

Saturday's free GOLD feature is the very popular Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users. Basically, many trainers turn to preferred riders when they have one ‘ready to win and this report quickly identifies those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

These are the settings that I apply for my TJC report searches...

...as I'm far more interested in quality over quantity, but sadly I have neither today because I've no qualifiers at all! Now, if I wasn't a Gold subscriber, it might seem as I've been stymied, but fear not! There's always the daily free races to tilt at and they are...

  • 1.25 Curragh
  • 3.20 Kempton
  • 3.28 Stratford
  • 3.46 Kelso
  • 4.16 Curragh
  • 4.55 Wolverhampton

And of those, I'm going to tackle the one from the Scottish Borders. It might only have a handful of runners, but it's a competitive-looking stayers handicap, but the best (on paper) of our free races is the 3.46 Kelso, a 5-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle (13 flights) over a left-handed 3m2f on good ground. It's worth a cool £18k to one of these...

All five have displayed some type of decent form in their latest races, all have won at least once in their last six outings with the top two on the card (Sultan's Pride & Wakool) looking the best with four wins from six with the former winning seven of his last ten!

Sultan's Pride is one of two (Kaizer) former course and distance winners, but only Wakool is without a win at a similar trip as Teescomponents Lad and Small Present have both won over 3m1½f at Catterick.

We should have no rustiness here with all five having raced in the last three to seven weeks, but none are turned out very quickly. Sultan's Pride is out only LTO winner, having beaten Teescomponents Lad by 2.5 lengths.

SULTAN'S PRIDE
Has shown almost continuous improvement since returning to action in October 2020 after a 7.5 month break, winning by 20 lengths at Hexham on that comeback run. He's 6 from 9 since then and 3 from 3 since Christmas, all at Doncaster. He's up 5lbs for his latest win taking his mark to some 39lbs higher than his October 2020 comeback run, but still looks the one to beat under an in-form jockey, Theo Gillard...

WAKOOL
Another progressive type who has made the first three home in each of ten starts over the last seventeen months, winning four times and has scored at classes 4, then 3, then 2 so far this season. Had to settle for second LTO denying him a four-timer as he was unlucky to run into The Big Galloper at Musselburgh. He's bang in form, as are both yard and rider together and individually and as a 'son' of Motivator is expected to be a decent hurdler (his 3-6 yr old hurdlers are 21 from 105 since 2018)...

TEESCOMPONENTS LAD
Ran consistently well during the last third of 2021, finishing as runner-up three times before winning over 3m at Market Rasen in November before a third of ten at Carlisle in December, despite a 6lb rise. Not the same in his first two runs this year as 6th of 8 (17L) and 3rd of 5 (13L), but did show signs of recovery back down in weight when a 2.5 length runner-up to Sultan's Pride LTO.

SMALL PRESENT
Came alive around this time last year, winning at Catterick, Doncaster and Haydock at four-week intervals before a seven month and an ill-fated (10th of 11, 61L) solitary attempt over fences. Won over hurdles on his return to Haydock two months ago, but will ned a bounce back here after a poor run there a month ago, when 6th of 9, beaten by 16 lengths.

KAIZER
The first three months of 2022 have been the best spell of form for this 7yr old since back to back wins inside a week in Sept/Oct 2019! Only beaten by a length and a quarter at Class 4 over 3m½f at Newcastle in mid-January, he hen stepped up in class/trip/weight to win a Class 3 here over course and distance by a comfortable 15 lengths that really could have been any margin. That didn't fool the assessor and he was raised 9lbs for the win for next/last run, which saw him finish second of ten also here at Kelso three weeks ago, where it was the sharpness of a 2m5f trip that was more to blame than his mark of 115. Now back up in trip.

At this point, I'd have to say that likely favourite Sultan's Pride is the one to beat, but if you're undecided or disagree, then Instant Expert might sway you...

Yes, he's another 5lbs higher than his latest win, but that isn't much more than the rises for Small Present, who was poor LTO and Teescomponents Lad, who he beat LTO. Kaizer & Wakool, on the other hand are much higher than they've previously won at. Elsewhere, not too much red around, thankfully, but Kaizer's 0/8 at Class 2, 1/7 at Kelso and his 1/13 in smaller fields makes him the worst on that graphic. Wakool is 0/3 on good ground, but that doesn't tell you that he made the frame in all three.

It might well be that tactics decide this competitive event and based on their most recent efforts, I'd expect the likes of Kaizer and Teescomponents Lad to set the tempo, whilst the two form horses, Sultan's Pride & Wakool are the ones who'll be waited with...

Sadly, we don't have enough data about the pace in small field stayers hurdles at Kelso, but I do know from my own visits that those trying to win the race from the front have often failed, but you'll have to trust me on that one 😉 If my memory serves me correctly, then that's a further blow to the chances of Kaizer and Teescomponents Lad.

Summary

From the start Sultan's Pride and Wakool were the two that stood out. I have them in that order on form, overall record and Instant Expert. They're closely matched on pace and I expect/hope they'll be the first two home with Sultan's Pride leading the way.

So, they're my 1-2 and I've got them at 2/1 and 3/1 respectively, so I'm pleasantly surprised to see Bet365 offering 5/2 about the fav, so that's where my money is going (plus the reverse forecast, of course!) today. Wakool is a solid 3's in most places.

 

 

 

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