Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/05/22

Saturday's free Geegeez Gold feature, the Trainer Jockey Combo (TJC) stats report brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has already produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following free races of the day...

  • 1.05 Navan
  • 1.55 Punchestown
  • 2.44 Cartmel
  • 3.30 Haydock
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 4.55 Chester

And I think we'll take a look at the Group 3 John of Gaunt Stakes aka the 3.30 Haydock, an 8-runner, 4yo+ contest over a left handed 7f on good ground that is softer in places and they're watering...

Recent results for this field don't exactly scream Group 3 success, which is why a formline shouldn't be the end of your analysis. Happy Power is our only LTO winner, but Spycatcher was a runner-up earlier this month. We've two runners coming back from a break, as Kinross and Laneqash have been absent for 224 and 246 days respectively, but aside from Pogo's 63 day break, the rest of the field have raced inside the last five weeks.

Catch Twentytwo and Spycatcher are the only two yet to win at this trip, whilst Kinross is the only previous Haydock winner, having landed this very race last year and based on OR vs weight, he's technically 2lbs to 7lbs well in here.

CATCH TWENTYTWO
Was in the frame in three Gr 1 races in South Africa before coming to the UK where has raced unsuccessfully on two occasions, finishing last of seven at Gr3 and then last of four in a Listed race and is easy to overlook here.

HAPPY POWER
Has won 8 of 27 on the Flat, but his win in a 3-runner Listed event at Leicester last time out was his first after nine defeats following a hat-trick in Autumn 2020. Has looked sharper this year and seems to get on well with jockey David Probert.

KINROSS
Landed a Listed race on the A/W at Kempton before winning this race and the Gr 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last summer. He also ran better than 9th of 230 might suggest in his last outing when beaten by just over 4 lengths on Champions Day at Ascot. he got bumped about a lot, losing ground but still seems full of running at the finish. No doubts about his ability, but might he need a run? That said, he won this last year after 192 days off.

LANEQASH
Only six runs so far, but placed three times including a couple of Class 1's. Sole win was on debut at Class 5 and he might not quite be as good as some of the others and may need a run after a lengthy absence.

MISTY GREY
Probably better on the A/W (4/11) than the Flat (1/11) if truth be told and hasn't won on the Flat since his second career start in a Class 4 Novice race over three years ago. He was third of six beaten by five lengths over this track/trip last time out, but this race is tougher and deeper and I'm not sure he can step up.

POGO
Hasn't raced in the UK since last September, but he's not likely to be rusty having raced three times in the Middle East. Those races didn't quite go to plan and was a well beaten 15th of 16 in the Meydan Mile last time out. That said, he was only beaten by three quarters of a length in a Gr 2 on his last UK run, so might fare better 'back home'

SPYCATCHER
At 2 from 11 on the Flat and 1 from 4 on the A/W, you'd have to say he doesn't win often enough, but having made the frame in 11 of those 15 races, he's often a good place or E/W proposition and was second of nine in a Group 2 at York earlier this month despite being hampered late on, so it's not beyond possibility that he goes well here.

SUNRAY MAJOR
Started out really well, finishing 1411 in his first four outings, but they were at Class 5 (x3) and Class 3. He hasn't fared so well in three runs since at Cl2, Gr2 and Gr1 finishing 14th of 20, 5th of 5 and 6th of 9 last time out and you can't help but feel that he's just a solid Class 2/3 handicapper, but he's from a good yard and has a certain Mr Dettori on board so anything could happen here!

Instant Expert points to Kinross being the one best suited by conditions...

...but Happy Power and Sunray Major both score quite well.

Based on widened parameters to give a better sample size...

The draw would seem to favour the lower drawn runners...

and The Pace seems to suggest up front is the place to be...

...making the high drawn leader the one to be on here, a fact backed up by the Heat Map...

...and by logging how this field normally runs, we can superimpose them onto that heatmap...

Sadly we have no high-drawn leader, but it seems like Pogo & Catch Twentytwo will set the pace. This is likely to make them targets for the pack as I don't fancy either of them to hold on. Kinross raced in mid-division when winning this race last year and from stall 6, they would be excellent tactics once again. Happy Power also looks pretty well suited on the heatmap and if either of Spycatcher and/or Sunray Major were to track Kinross they'd have a chance of being involved late on from a high draw.

Summary

I've split this in half in my head and I'm not keen on Catch Twentytwo, Laneqash, Misty Grey or Pogo if truth be told and I can see last year's winner Kinross taking this again. He improved after winning this last time and this renewal doesn't look as strong as 2021, so I'm with Kinross, as no doubt many will be.

As for the places, I've three aiming for two spots and I'm not got much between Happy Power, Spycatcher & Sunray Major, but I have them in that order, although any combination of the three wouldn't surprise me.

The bookies agree about Kinross, sadly, he's the 3/1 fav right now and my three place hopefuls are 5/1, 6/1 and 7/2, so if we can keep Frankie out of the frame, the tricast/trifecta might be worth winning 😉

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