Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 29/01/22

The Saturday free Geegeez Gold feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

But wait, there's more free stuff, there's also our daily selection of full free racecards for these races...

  • 12.08 Uttoxeter
  • 2.45 Doncaster
  • 3.20 Doncaster
  • 3.25 Fairyhouse
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.35 Kempton

You can filter the TJC report to show all races or handicaps only and you can then break them down into 14 day, 30 day, 1 year, course 1 year and course 5 year records. I'm only really interested in handicaps and my settings are fairly strict, so that I'm not ploughing through reams of qualifiers each day and Saturday is no exception, as the only possibles I have both feature on my course 5 year handicap report...

And I'm going to try to quickly ascertain whether Irish Millions and/or Sophosc might be worth backing, starting with the 3.48 Lingfield, where the Haggas/Marquand combination has been red hot. An IV of 4.15 and a PRB of 0.80 is exceptional and they team up with Irish Millions for this 3yo, Class 5 handicap over 7f.

Irish Millions is a seven-race maiden, finishing 4446 over 6f/7f on turf prior to three runs on the A/W, where he was second of eight beaten by a neck at Wolverhampton over 7f and then 7th of 8 over the same class/track/trip a fortnight later before taking a two month break. He returned to action a fortnight ago, finish second over today's class, track and trip, just half a length behind Essencial who he meets again here, but on 2lb better terms, which should give him a good chance of overturning the deficit.

We know he's lightly raced and yet to win, so let's look at his places stats to see if today's conditions will suit him...

...and we see that on the Flat, he has done better since moving into handicap company with all three A/W runs also in hcps. and with a largely green profile, albeit off small sample sizes, Instant Expert would appear to suggest he has a good chance of making the frame.

He's drawn in stall 4, which doesn't appear to be a terrible place to be drawn...

...although higher would also have been good. He led last time out, but has also raced in mid-division of late and both of those approaches do better than par over 7f here at Lingfield

...and were he to run as he did here over C&D last time out, leading from his mid-draw would be the ideal tactic, based on...

*

Then we're off to the 7.05 Kempton, where the Williams/Kingscote combination send Sophosc out for a Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over a mile and a half...

As you can see, he he was in pretty decent form (13121) before finishing fourth last time out. In his defence, that was a Class 3 race where he didn't get the best of runs and had to go quite wide and his seven career wins have all been at Class 4 or lower. He has two wins and two places from seven over today's trip, 3 wins and 3 places from 7 under today's jockey and has been a runner-up here over course and distance. The stat box shows his yard is in good health and the Trainer/Jockey stats are even better lately than the five-year figures, which is encouraging.

Stat-wise in races similar today, aside from being 8lbs higher than his last win (which was at this class/trip by 6.5 lengths, so 8lbs isn't massively punitive), he looks like he'll relish conditions here...

...giving him an excellent opportunity making the frame. He's drawn out in 7 of 9 for this one and whilst 7 of 9 hasn't particularly been a happy hunting ground, higher draws have done best here, so being towards the highest end is another positive...

The question, I suppose, is what he makes of that decent draw. Over his last four runs, his average pace score is 2.00, which is firmly mid-division, he has raced prominently in a couple of races, but throughout his career he has tended to be a mid-division horse, which would be the ideal tactic here...

...and a highly drawn, mid-division/prominent runner has had quite a bit of success here over this track and trip...

...bettered only by the low drawn mid-div horse.

Summary

Everything points to good runs from both featured horses and I'd say that my personal feelings/thoughts allied to the details above have put me on the verge of backing both, but I do need to see what prices I can get about them. We should never be interested in backing winners just to improve our strike rate, we have to back horses at the right price to pay for the losers. If you've a 25% strike rate (well done there, by the way!), you need to be backing winners at average price of 7/2 just to make an ROI of 12.5%. If most of your betting is around 3/1 or shorter, you can't make a profit.

So, let's start with Irish Millions at Lingfield : I've got him as a firm placer and would have expected him to run at 4/1 or maybe 9/2, so to see Hills offering 5/1 is great news. He's going to have to see off the likes of LTO winner Small Print to win, though, whilst another LTO winner Golden Spice looks a big price at 7's (shame he's not 8's for an E/W punt).

It's a similar story at Kempton later on, where I see Sophosc as a definite placer with the main danger to success being Charlie Arthur. So much so, that the bookies have the pair locked with another runner, Red Flyer as 4/1 co-favourites. I'm not hugely into Red Flyer here, as he might need the run on yard debut, but I do agree with the other two co-favs. The other one of interest here would be the in-form Eagle One. None of the three are long enough to play the E/W market, but Sophosc's 4/1 is probably a little shorter than I'd hoped for : I thought he'd be 9/2 or even 5/1.

So, I've two possibles that I thought would be an average price of 9/2, so I'll back both Irish Millions at 5's and Sophosc at 4's to get that average price and keep my fingers crossed that they drift for those of you on BOG prices.

 

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1 reply
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Richard
    Richard says:

    Good analysis as usual Chris. If I had come up with that conclusion, I would definitely be considering an each way, and a place double.

    Reply

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