Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 30/04/22

Last piece of the week/month and we're a third through 2022 already! Our free GOLD feature is the rather excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for our readers. Basically some trainers have better records with certain jockeys and vice versa and this report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row of the report will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing and then a further click on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

This free feature is complemented, as ever, by a selection of free, fully functional racecards for the following contests...

  • 1.15 Newmarket
  • 2.35 Punchestown
  • 3.50 Punchestown
  • 4.50 Newmarket
  • 5.15 Hexham
  • 7.35 Doncaster

My settings for the TJC report...

...are fairly restrictive, but on the course five year handicap form, I have a qualifier who runs in one of our 'free' races...

...so I suppose I really should take a look at the chances of Messrs Appleby & Doyle with Private Signal in the 4.50 Newmarket, a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo Flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that I should be focusing upon the TJC report horse, Private Signal, his stablemate King of Time and the Johnston horse, Spirit Catcher, but let's have a look at all six in turn...

RAZZLE DAZZLE
Hasn't been seen for almost eight months since finishing 6th of 9 (beaten by 6.45 lengths) in a Listed race at Doncaster, but had ran well in both of his previous outings as a half lengths runner-up and then a 5.5 lengths winner in a pair of Class 4, 7f contests on the July course here at Newmarket last August. Now a class higher than those runs, but two grades down from LTO, he now tries a mile for the first time and hasn't been done any favours as top weight off a mark of 94 for his handicap debut, but jockey Ryan Moore is in great form right now...

PRIVATE SIGNAL
The TJC report horse turns back out just 13 days after a really good run on handicap debut at Newbury, when a 0.75 length runner-up over 7f. That was at one class higher than today and came off the back of a 281 day absence, so there's every chance he'll come on for having had the run, although he has been raised 3lbs for his troubles. His place on the TJC report is backed up by these numbers...

SPIRIT CATCHER
Won by four lengths on debut at Redcar (C4, 7f) in early October and then went down by just a neck at Chelmsford three weeks later before being put back in the shed for the winter. He re-emerged a fortnight ago after almost six months rest to win on handicap debut at Musselburgh, tackling this class and trip for the first time. Every chance of improving upon that run now the cobwebs have gone, but he has been raised 4lbs for a half length win. His jockey is in good nick, though and has been amongst the winners for this yard (as always seems to be the case!) and other offspring of his sire, New Bay, have gone well in similar contests...

KING OF TIME
By Kingman and his career to date consists of two runs on the A/W at Lingfield a fortnight apart in February/March of this year. Both at Class 5, both over a mile, both novice contests and he won both by a length and a quarter. An opening handicap mark of 86 seems lenient compared with Razzle Dazzle's 94, but he does step up two classes and is unproven on turf. Mind you, he is by Kingman who wasn't too shabby on turf and his yard have a good record with handicap debutants...

TIEMPO STAR
Four Class 4 runs last year that got progressively better (8321) after defeats by 14L and 5L were followed by a runner-up finish, a neck behind the winner and then he finally won LTO when scoring by a head on both his A/W and his 1m debut. Hasn't raced for 208 days and will probably need the run, but was gelded during his down-time. Will need to improve to be involved here and he's probably going to find this tough, but his yard aren't faring too badly right now...

BULLET FORCE
Like Spirit Catcher above, returned to action at Musselburgh a fortnight ago after a 175 day absence and they both ran in the same race. Spirit Catcher won, of course, but Bullet Force was 4¼ lengths back as 5th of 10 and even though he's now 5lbs better off with the winner, I'm not convinced he's overturning the placings here.

This half a dozen runners have only raced 23 times between them, but have made the frame 16 times, going on to win eight of them, but how have they fared under similar conditions to today? Let's check Instant Expert for the answers...

Of an admittedly small sample size, the TJC report horse, Spirit Catcher doesn't stand out on the win graphic, whilst Bullet Force's failure to land any of three attempts art this this trip is a red marker for me, compounded by him only making the frame once, as the the place graphic. King In Time gets the trip, but has no turf experience.

A small field and a straight mile, so surely there's no draw bias at play?

If we treat the data from stalls 6 &7 as one entity, then that's 10 wins/19 places from 47 which is very similar to stall 4. Stall 5's numbers have to be anomalous, there's no real reason for one isolated stall to fare so badly and although stalls 1 and 2 haven't won as many as the others, they have made the frame regularly, so I'm still not sure there's much in it.

Which means it may well be a case of who has the best tactics/pace management here and in those 40-odd races above, the general rule has been the further forward you race, the more chance you have of winning...

...and in a race not exactly full of pacemakers, it might prove good news for Spirit Catcher to race as he did for his first two outings...

Summary

King of Time will prove popular amongst punters by the way he seemed to win effortlessly on both previous outings and his lenient looking handicap mark, but this isn't a Class 5 1m spin on the Lingfield polytrack, this is a Class 3 handicap on quick ground at HQ and whilst he has a great chance of adapting and winning here, he's not backable for me at 6/5 to 6/4, so I'll look elsewhere. I still think his main rivals are Private Signal and Spirit Catcher and of the two, based on everything above, I've a marginal preference for the latter.

I won't be investing heavily, but after a 6/1 winner on Friday, I've a couple of quid spare for a 7/2 bet on Spirit Catcher with the obvious caveat that King of Time might be far better!

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