Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/07/22

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.20 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.45 Doncaster
  • 6.00 Leopardstown
  • 8.23 Epsom

..from which I'm going to look at the 3.45 Doncaster, an 8-runner (hopefully staying that way for E/W bettors), Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

JUMP THE GUN was a winner here over class, course and distance last time out, but is up 6lbs for a 0.75 length success and for a horse not known for stringing results together, that makes this tough. He'd only won 1 of 20 on the flat prior to that win and I'm not convinced he's ready to back it up, even if his jockey has some good numbers about him.

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CLIFFCAKE has four wins and a runner-up finish from his last five starts and he's the form horse here. He's up 6lbs for the win, but this 4 yr old probably hasn't stopped improving and has moved his mark from 56 to 81 in the last year. he's 2/2 on good to firm and 4/4 at this trip and could be the one to beat under an in-form 5lb claimer.

MYKONOS ST JOHN has won over this trip, but generally races over a mile, but that said, his last win was over 7f, albeit some 13 races and 5 months ago at Southwell on the A/W. 14th of 15, 7th of 9 and last of 14 in his latest three runs says all you need to know here, even if his yard have had some recent success.

POINT LYNAS won a Class 2 nursery over this trip on his last run for Charles Hill nine months ago and wasn't seen again until 26 days ago when making a yard debut for Ed Bethell in another Class 2 handicap (Chester, 7½f) but stumbled and weakened late on to finish 11th of 12, 9 lengths adrift. He's better than that and will have needed the run and now goes off the same mark but two classes lower and could easily be involved here and the new yard is ticking over nicely.

FRESH HOPE also drops two classes to run here after a creditable 6th of 28 in the Sandringham at Ascot last month. She was only headed with a furlong to run, so the drop in trip should also help. prior to that Ascot outing, she had won here at Doncaster, prevailing by a short head over a mile and will no doubt be involved here, but she's 4lbs heavier than that win.

NO NAY NICKI also ran in the Sandringham, but was well down the field in 20th of 28, over 20 lengths off the winner, in what was only her fifth start. Prior to that, she'd only gone down by 8 lengths in a Listed race at York and although she has won over 6f at Pontefract, this 2nd crack at a handicap looks beyond her.

TASHGHEEL was last home of 16 at Pontefract last month in a Class 3, 6f handicap on his return from 8 months off. Prior to his break he had been 7th of 10 and 18th of 20, so I'm not expecting much here, even if he is down in class and weight and his trainer/jockey are in good form together.

BILLYB in an interesting sort lurking at the bottom of the weights having won at Haydock two starts ago and only beaten by a nose at Newcastle when headed at the post last time out. A slight drop in trip could help and after just five runs on turf, might have more to give.

So we've 4 good to firm winners, 3 Class 4 winners, 2 Doncaster winners and 4 winners over 7 furlongs and Instant Expert quickly shows who they are...

...where the obvious standouts are Jump The Gun, Cliffcake and Fresh Hope. The above is pretty self expalnatory and raises doubts about Mykonos St John on class and weight and Tashgeel on class. Point Lynas is also 0/6 at Class 4, but has made the frame four times. Most of the field are 4-7lbs higher than their last win, so whilst that's a negative usually, it's a shared negative here!

Of the three seemingly best suited on Instant Expert, we've got runners in stalls 1, 7 & 8, but I'm not convinced we're going to find a massive draw bias on a straight seven, but let's check anyway...

...and as I thought, there's really not much in it. Low draws fare best, but that's influenced by a strangely good set of data for stall 2, whilst stall 4's inexplicable poor results affect the mid-drawn figures. Personally I wouldn't get too hung up on draw here. Pace however, is a different matter and it certainly pays here over 7f at Doncaster to either set the pace or get as close to it as you can...

...which will suit Cliffcake most out of my Instant Expert trio...

...whilst our pace/draw heatmap looks like this...

Summary

The three from Instant Expert are the three most likely with Point Lynas also in contention. Cliffcake scores best of the trio on Pace/draw, which is where Point Lynas comes to the fore and I think he'll take them along nicely before getting caught and passed. The question is how many will catch and pass him? Cliffcake for me, will do so, but there's a really good chance that Point Lynas hangs on for a place.

I'll take Cliffcake at 4/1 as my winner here and Point Lynas could well be worth an 8/1 E/W bet. Best of the rest could/should be the fav Fresh Hope, who looks very short at 7/4, but time will tell.

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