Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 08/02/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

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  • 1.05 Huntingdon
  • 1.30 Doncaster
  • 2.25 Lingfield
  • 6.35 Newcastle

...the best of which (on class/paper, at least) is the 2.25 Lingfield, a Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

Only top-weight Bosh was a winner last time out, but both Aljari and Hieronymus finished third with the former having won three of his previous four. The latter won two starts ago, as Love de Vega and Mclean House (who is 3 from 5), whilst Charencey won three races ago. Only Baldomero is on a long losing run, having been beaten in each of his last 25 outings over a 23 month period. That said, he has finished in the first three home in 6 of his last 7, so all might not be lost even if his mark just won't come down.

He does, however take a drop in class here, but Hieronymus, Love de Vega and Mclean House are all up in class despite LTO defeats. All seven have raced in the last five weeks with bottom-weight Charencey turned back out after just four days rest. He, along with top-weight Bosh are the only two yet to win over this trip and o the four runners to have raced at this track previously, only Aljari has won here, scoring over course and distance on his sole visit back in June of last year, the first win of a 9-week hat-trick last summer.

Over the last couple of years on the A/W...

...Aljari has probably performed the best, but as shown above Baldomero has been more of a placer than a winner...

In fact, despite a run of 25 defeats, he has consistently made the frame and sometimes at decent odds nd has remained a viable E/W option in many of his races. That said, I can't back him to win here and off place form, I'm not over-excited about Hieronymus, Mclean House or Charencey unless there's something in the pace/draw stats to convince me otherwise.

If we go back over the last 200 or so (good sample size) similar races on this track, there's not much to suggest that the draw will have much effect...

...I suppose there's a slight advantage in the middle, because (a) the bend will be a little sharper for those drawn lower and (b) those drawn higher have a little further to run, but it's really not a huge draw bias. Pace, however, is a different kettle of fish and there's a clear pattern to how those races above have unfolded with those setting the pace doing best of all...

That's not to say that hold-up can't/won't win here, but they're only half as likely as leaders to do so, which looks like far better news for Hieronymus, than it does for the likes of Charencey, based on the field's last three runs...

Summary

You can make a case for several here, but the one I like best is Bosh. He's coming into good form right now, having finished 321 in his last three and was still pulling late on in his win at Chelmsford last time out, suggesting the extra furlong here should suit him. He was far more comfortable than half a length might suggest, beating Admiral D, who had won at Class 2 off a mark of 87 not long ago. Bosh is only up 2lbs here and should go well again.

Aljari is probably my next best, a consistent performer on the A/W since the start of last year who can and does race prominently when called upon. he's till only 3lbs higher than his last in and should be there or thereabouts again today.

The 3pm odds don't give me a viable E/W option here...

...so I'll stick with those two above. Baldomero is a proven placer and Hieronymus might be afforded an easy lead and they'll be the main dangers to my 1-2 as far as I can see.

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