Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/04/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

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  • 1.33 Taunton
  • 2.35 Limerick
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

...from which the clear highest-rated takes place just North of Liverpool city centre. The 3.30 Aintree is the Aintree Hurdle, a Class 1 (Grade 1 no less), 4yo+, hurdles contest over two and a half miles (plus 74 yards today for rail movements), taking in a dozen hurdles over a left handed track on soft ground, where one of these will trot away having netted just over £140k for their owner(s)...

Early indications are that this is expected to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe, who are both expected to go off shorter than 2/1. This is unattractive to me in terms of picking/backing a winner, based on my staking levels, but it does open the prospect of an E/W bet at 8/1 or bigger, so let's go!

Langer Dan and Mahons Glory both won last time out, but the latter is the only runner in this field not to run at Class 1 last time out, as he comes here off the back of a Boxing Day, Class 3 hurdle win at Kempton, but he has won two of his last five, whilst the former scored at Cheltenham, becoming the first horse to land the Coral Cup on more than one occasion.

All eight have won at least one of their last five with only Nicky Henderson's Marie's Rock failing to complete their last race. She's one of two mares in the race, both trained by Nick henderson, who has won this race four times in the last six years, including 2022 and 2023. Marie's Rock's jockey Nico de Boinville was in the saddle last year, steering Constitution Hill home to victory. The other mare is the consistent (5 wins and 5 places from 10) Luccia.

The two mares get a 7lbs weight allowance here in a race where the two market principals are best off at the weights ahead of Luccia after the allowances are factored in. Most of the field ran at the Cheltenham Festival a month ago, but Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe didn't visit HQ and last raced in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown almost ten weeks ago, finishing second and third respectively, 5.5 and 10/5 lengths behind State Man, who then went to Cheltenham to win our Champion Hurdle. Luccia was a gallant third that day, beaten by just 3.5 lengths.

Only Mahon's Glory has yet to race this year, but he is one of just two (alongside Langer Dan) to have won over this course and distance, although all bar Neman Lion and Luccia have won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...that said, neither have raced at this trip! The above graphic suggests that of the favourites, Impaire should feel more at home on the soft ground but Bob Olinger is also 3 from 3 over fences on soft ground. Beacon Edge looks like he might be outclassed here and Mahons Glory will find it tough to challenge, but as I'm after an E/W bet, let's look at place data...

...where, as you'd expect, most fare pretty well. I think it's the end of the road here for Beacon Edge, Langer Dan, Mahon's Glory and Marie's Rock, though, as Nemean Lion and Luccia look better E/W prospects so far, unless there's something radical in the pace stats to make me change my mind. I'm aware that this last pair haven't raced at this trip before, but is it better or worse to have not raced at the trip than it is to have tried and failed?

As it stands, this field's recent races suggest that there might well be some decent early pace...

...whilst off an admittedly small sample size of similar past races here at Aintree, early pace does seem to be the best tactic...



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Summary

I agree with the pre-race judgement that this is likely to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe and if pushed for a verdict, I'd have Impasse et Passe ahead of Bob Olinger here, but I doubt there'll be very much in it.

As for the places, I envisage another tight battle between Luccia and Nemean Lion. Luccia has ticked more boxes during my analysis, but has never been beyond 2m1f, whilst Nemean Lion was a runner-up over 2m5½f earlier this year. I do like Luccia more than Nemean Lion and she's technically 5lbs well in, so if she stays the trip, she'd be my E/W option. The Wednesday 3.30pm market looked like this...

...with Nemean Lion looking attractively priced too. I'll take Luccia, but I might take the Lion too!

 

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