Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 17/03/22

The Instant Expert tab on our racecards offers the fastest route to check and compare an entire field's past form under given race conditions  (going, class, course, distance, field size etc etc) and is a quick way-in to see which horses might be best suited. It is by far, the most popular tab on our racecards and we're happy to make it freely available to ALL readers for ALL races every Thursday, including, of course, the daily 'free' races, which are set to be...

  • 3.15 Down Royal
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

And I think I'm going to tackle the last of those four, the 8.30 Wolverhampton, a trappy-looking, 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a left handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

Subjective Value carriers top weight here, but comes here with the best form of the eight runners, having won last time out, as did Canny Fettle, who makes just a second handicap appearance, as do Alvediston and bottom weight Phantasy Mac, whilst Pangloss is on handicap debut after being rested for 16 weeks. Luxor Flush has been off the track for three months, but the other six have all raced in the past four weeks.

Aside from the two LTO winners, Alvediston and Phantasy Mac both the frame on their last outing, but the latter is down up a class here. Conversely, Luxor flush returns from a break down one level, whilst form horse/top weight Subjective Value actually won at Class 3 last time out.

SUBJECTIVE VALUE
Two wins (both over C&D) and two narrow defeats as runner-up in his last four races have given him a great start to 2022. Up 4lbs now to a career-high mark of 76, but he is down two classes and might take some stopping on familiar territory.

CANNY FETTLE
Produced his best run so far when winning for the first time at Newcastle over a mile a fortnight ago on what was not only his fourth start, but also a handicap debut. Up 3lbs for the win, but definite chances.

ALVEDISTON
Another with just four runs behind him, but yet to win. Best so far was his 3rd of 7 over a mile a fortnight, when 1.25 lengths behind Canny Fettle (above) on handicap debut. That was his first run for over four months, so he could come on for it and he's 3lbs better off with the winner, so this could be interesting.

MASHKUUR
Was knocking on the door with finishes of 3222 prior to only finishing 4th of 5 at Lingfield last time out. Still a maiden after seven races, now takes a drop in trip to hopefully kick start him. Others are more appealing here

LUXOR FLUSH
Last of four in his final maiden and last of 7 and 6th of 7 in two handicap runs. No win in 5 career starts, all at 6f, now steps up in trip after a 3 month layoff. Not for me, thanks.

PANGLOSS
0 from 3 in maidens, up in trip after a break, file in same area as Luxor Flush above.

KING OF WAR
Another maiden, this time after six starts. Never nearer to winning than a three length defeat, never raced beyond 7f and was only fourth of six last time out. Another I don't fancy.

PHANTASY MAC
Bottom weight, receiving 7-16lbs from the field, unlucky to lose by a short head over a mile at Newcastle on handicap debut just under a fortnight ago, coming off a 14-week absence. She should come on for the run/experience and could very well get involved here, especially off a mark of just 60.

At this point, I really don't like Luxor Flush, Pangloss or King of War and I'm not mad keen on Mashkuur's chances either, but the other four all have promise/potential as possible bets.

We've only two former winners here and both won LTO and the field as a whole are only 3 wins and 11 further places from 42 runs, so Instant Expert is probably going to highlight more weaknesses than strengths...

As I expected, Subjective Value is the eyecatcher and IE certainly does highlight some weak spots. Mashkuur is 0/5 on standard and King of War is 0/6 at Class 5, hopefully they'll look better from a place perspective?

Well, yes. Mashkuur's three placed efforts on this going earn him a green and the returning Luxor Flush has a good Class 5 record, but it's all on turf sadly. And we're still not getting away from Subjective Value, who is drawn in stall 2 here, which hasn't been a bad place to be in past similar contests...

...although those out in 6, 7 and 8 will be very happy with those numbers, whilst the upshot from the pace data is that you don't want to hang about and prominent running yields the best results...

...which again seems to suit Subjective Value's recent efforts perfectly...

Summary

Most unsurprisingly, I'm siding with Subjective Value. He brings the best form to the table, he's 2 from 2 over course and distance, he drops two classes here and is likely to be calling the tune from the start. I was rather hoping for 7/2 based on a quick glance at the field earlier, but having looked at everything, his current (4.20pm) 3/1 could still be generous and I'm on.

I think Canny Fettle, the other winner in the field is probably second best. He's second best on form and will race prominently. He's not ideally drawn in 5, but his jockey is in excellent form and he should be the biggest danger to the pick.

As for a third horse to complete the 1-2-3, well you could make a case for plenty, but previously unfancied Mashkuur is interesting as a 12/1 E/W pick on old form, but I wouldn't be putting much down on him. Alvediston & Phantasy Mac are safer option, but not long enough to punt E/W.

 

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