Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/06/22

The Instant Expert tab is Thursday's free feature and it is by far the most popular tab on the Geegeez racecards, because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view.

The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE : Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This feature is available to all readers for all races on Thursdays, including our free races of the day, which are...

  • 1.10 Nottingham
  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 3.45 Newmarket
  • 6.30 Hamilton

...and we'll head to the North East for the 3.20 Newcastle, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo, A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard to slow tapeta...

Kape Moss won last time out and she is two from her last four, Silky Wilkie is running consistently well as is Lovely Mana, whilst the bottom two on the card seem to be in the worst form of the field.

Four of these seven ran in this grade last time out, but Angle Land, Iur Cinn Tra & Hot Diggity Dog are all up in class, which can't be good of the last of that trio, based on form and he's one of only two (Mega Marvel is the other) yet to win at 5f, whilst three of the field (Silky Wilkie, Angle Land and Iur Cinn Tra) have yet to win here at Newcastle, mind you they've only one course appearance between them! Top weight Lovely Mana is the only course and distance winner in the field.

All seven have raced inside the last five weeks with three (Lovely Mana, Silky Wilkie & Hot Diggity Dog) rested for less than ten days. I quite like seeing in-form horses turned back out fairly quickly, so that could be good for the first pair of that trio. Plenty of today's jockeys have positive icons for either recent form or course stats, but Lovely Mana's yard stands out amongst the trainers.

At this point, I'm liking Lovely Mana, Kape Moss & Silky Wilkie more than the others, especially the bottom pair!

LOVELY MANA won here over course and distance almost three months ago and although beaten in her five runs since, she has only gone down by a length and a short head in two of her last three, in which she has made the frame each time. I expect her to run her race and she should be there or thereabouts yet again. She's 2 from 3 over 5f on Tapeta and trainer/jockey work well together...

KAPE MOSS won here over 6f a fortnight before Christmas, but has only raced three times since, including a career best effort when scoring on her first crack at 5f over at Goodwood a month ago despite behind hampered, she won by just over a length and a quarter off a mark of 73. She has already struggled twice off a mark of 75, so today's 78 might prove problematic and the yard are only 1 from 19 in the last fortnight.

SILKY WILKIE has never finished outside the first three home in his ten starts (2222133412) and won off 75 at Haydock a fortnight ago before being beaten by half a length off 78 last Saturday. Now eased a pound, he's got to be one of the contenders here if bringing his turf form over to the A/W for the first time.

ANGLE LAND won by a head over 5f at Lingfield on the A/W at the start of May and ran well enough to be a 1.25 length runner-up at Goodwood later that month after a 5lb rise. Didn't fare too well next/last time out when only 8th of 9 on soft ground at Windsor at the start of this month, but closer inspection shows she was badly hampered at just the wrong time and her race effectively ended 2f out. She's better than that, but whether she's good enough in this field, who knows? Jockey rides the track well, though...

IUR CINN TRA opened his career with eight defeats, but won his last race of 2021 (Chelmsford, C6, 6f) off a mark of 65 and also his first run of 2022 (Nottingham, C5, 5f) some five months later off 4lbs higher. Likes to lead and possibly did too much early on last time out finishing just 5th of 8 at Ripon over 6f and a return to A/W and 5f should help. Trainer & jockey are in good combined form right now, but that always seems to be the case!

HOT DIGGITY DOG is much better on the A/W than he is on turf, but still has just one win from six in this sphere, acquired over 6f here in mid-October, but has lost eight races since, failing to make the frame in his last four. As a result, his mark is tumbling right now, but he's still 8lbs higher than his sole win and that only came by a short head.

MEGA MARVEL has failed to make the frame in any of his six runs on turf, but is 1 from 1 on the A/W, having won a Class 5 Novice race over 6f here at Newcastle last November. 11th of 18, last of 11 and 5th of 6 in his last three outings suggest he might need more than a return to tapeta to get him going again.

All have won at least one race, four have won here, but who is best suited by the expected conditions? Feature of the day Instant Expert should have the answers...

As usual with 3 yr olds, we don't have masses of past runs to work from, but Lovely Mana, Kape Moss and Mega Marvel are the eye-catchers, whilst Silky Wilkie is on A/W debut, of course.

The draw stats suggest higher is better...

..which is good news for Lovely Mana, but not Mega Marvel, whilst the pace stats from those same races say that you really want to be attacking from the off...

...but even at an IV of 0.76, prominent runners can still win! So, basically we want a runner drawn higher up the stalls who likes to get out quickly and when we combine the field's last four runs with their draw here, we get this heat map...

...where Iur Cinn Tra, Kape Moss and Silky Wilkie are in the darkest of greens.


On form and racecard data, Lovely Mana, Kape Moss & Silky Wilkie were the ones to be with and they were the pick on Instant Expert. Lovely Mana had the best draw, but didn't fare as well on pace/draw combined, but Kape Moss & Silky Wilkie both did, so I think I want to stick with this trio.

The only doubt I have about Silky Wilkie is that it's his A/W debut, but he's off an unchanged mark and has a 7lb claimer on board. Kape Moss is on a career high mark for a yard struggling for winners, whilst Lovely Mana concedes weight all round.

I suspect this will be tight, but I'm tasking Silky Wilkie to land this one ahead of Kape Moss.

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