Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/01/22

The Instant Expert tab on our racecards offers the fastest route to check and compare an entire field's past form under given race conditions  (going, class, course, distance, field size etc etc) and is a quick way-in to see which horses might be best suited. It is by far, the most popular tab on our racecards and we're happy to make it freely available to ALL readers for ALL races every Thursday, including, of course, the daily 'free' races, which are set to be...

  • 12.50 Southwell
  • 2.05 Gowran Park
  • 3.35 Gowran Park
  • 5.00 Newcastle

...and the last of those four, the 5.00 Newcastle, appeals to me most. It's an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W (Tapeta) handicap over a straight mile...

Grangeclare View and Dubai Lady bring the best form to the table with a win and a runner-up finish in their last two outings, but all eight runners have won at least once in their most recent six outings. Cote D'Azur and War Defender both won six races ago, but they're in the worst form of this group right now.

Course specialist Broctune Red steps up a level, as does Dubai Lady and this sole female in the pack is also on handicap debut here. It's a second handicap run for Lightening Company, though and he drops down a grade. He's also the only one yet to win over today's trips, whilst Ulshaw Bridge, Dubai Lady, Plastic Paddy and Broctune Red have all achieved the feat here on this track.

None of these have been away from the track for too long or are turned back out too quickly, with Cote D'Azur's 58 days the longest lay-off and Broctune Red's fortnight the shortest rest period. From a trainer perspective, the eyecatcher is George Boughey (Dubai Lady) : his horses are running really well right now, he has a good record at this venue and also trained the winner of this race last year.

Under similar previous races to this one, courtesy of 'feature of the day' Instant Expert...

...Ulshaw Bridge has struggled. 1 from 8 on the A/W and 1 from 7 at Class 4 is poor. Grangeclare View has yet to win after 6 efforts on the A/W and Cote D'Azur's numbers are shocking. The ones I'd be most interested in if this was my only tool would be Dubai Lady, Plastic Paddy and Broctune Red. I know that War Defender's numbers aren't bad, but those two wins were in November 2020 and were preceded by ten straight defeats from debut and have been followed by five more losses.

As you'd expect over a straight mile on an artificial surface, there's no massive draw bias at play here...

...and I'd probably say the lower success rates from stalls 5 and 7 are just coincidental. Stall 6 does well enough nd 30 runners drawn higher than 7 have a win/place strike rate comparable to those drawn lowest. Pace and/or race tactics, however , are a different kettle of fish and those electing to set the fractions only win around 80% as often as you'd expect, with prominence being the best racing position : stalk the leader(s) and pounce late. Hold-up horses have also fared admirably here, almost achieving par scores, but as you can see, sitting handy is the ideal approach...

And based on recent performances...

...the three of note from Instant Expert (Dubai Lady, Plastic Paddy and Broctune Red) all look set to be waited with for a late run. Ulshaw Bridge is likely to set the pace here, but I'd expect all the action to unfold late on in this one.

Summary

Dubai Lady is the form horse, her yard are in good nick and have a good record here. They also won this race last year and their filly won here over course and distance on debut just after Christmas. She's got an ideal pace profile and I'd expect trainer/jockey to have the tactics spot on. An opening handicap mark of 75 doesn't seem overly punitive and for me, she'd be the one to beat here.

The other pair from Instant Expert & the pace tab, Plastic Paddy and Broctune Red are very closely matched in my book.

Plastic Paddy was a course and distance winner here in back-to-back visits in September/October of last year, but has since laboured after being raised 6/7 lbs. However, today's jockey 7lb claimer Frederick Larson has been on board for his last two outings, effectively reducing his mark to the same as his last win and together they have made the frame on both occasions.

Plastic Paddy has actually finished 1162 in four starts on this track, but if you think that's good, Broctune Red has 5 wins and 4 further places from 14 course and distance efforts, including a run reading 2111 from around this time last year and off bottom weight here, a pound lower than his last win, can be expected to give another good account of himself.

Dubai Lady is the 9/4 favourite right now and that's possibly a little tight, but she does look like the one to beat. Plastic Paddy is a 4/1 shot, which is probably about right whilst I was hoping for a little more than 15/2 about Broctune Red. I do like his chances of a place, but I'm not a fan of dipping below 8's for E/W betting.

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