Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 01/02/22

The Shortlist is the Geegeez Gold free feature every Tuesday and it's a simple (and usually brief) report which highlights horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to The Shortlist, we also have the following free racecards for all readers...

  • 1.10 Limerick
  • 1.20 Ffos Las
  • 2.20 Ffos Las
  • 3.10 Limerick

..and here's how The Shortlist looks for Tuesday...

And there's a pair at the top of the the list that should be worth at least a second look, so let's start with Mudlahhim in the 6.20 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Mudlahhim won a claimer here over course and distance just over a fortnight ago, but failed to back it up at Southwell when never on terms, finishing 7th of 9 almost 5 lengths adrift last Thursday on his first start for Scott Dixon. That said, he has won three of seven on the A/W and is the only course and distance winner in the field. He also drops down a class and runs off a mark lowered by 5lbs. Whether that's enough or not, is questionable but it should at least make him competitive.

Here are his current A/W stats...

So, he's 2/3 on standard A/W and 1 from 2 here, both over course and distance (has also won at Dundalk & Kempton), all 3 wins have been over this trip and he has won off today's mark/class. He's 2 from 4 going left handed and I expect a bold run from here today. He's drawn widest in stall 7 and tends to be up with the pace since coming over to the UK last August.

The draw stats say that 7 of 7 isn't actually a ba

d place to be, but he'd have been better off in the 2 to 4 area...

...whilst the pace stats suggest a prominent running style here over 7f would be the best policy...

...and we can combine pace/draw to produce our very own unique heat map upon which I've put him where I think he'll be...

Briefly, he's got ideal conditions, an OK draw but there's a possibility that he might be too keen to succeed in this type of race.

*

Our second featured runner, Bear Grils, goes off an hour later in the 7.20 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 5f on standard tapeta...

Each of his last four runs have been here and aside from a poor run in October when 8th of 11 over 7f which he probably found too far, he has managed to win each time, scoring over 6f and then 5f twice. He's up 7lbs for his win just after Christmas, but he did win quite cosily that day and was more comfortable than the official two length margin of success. His stats look like this...

...which are very impressive indeed. Of those wins, he's 1 from 1 under today's jockey too, 1 from 1 without his hood (not worn here either) and 2 from 2 over course and distance. Yes, there's that 7lbs rise to deal with, but you got the impression that he had plenty left last time out after scooting clear by two lengths. He's drawn 3 of 11, so he's at the lower end of the stalls and he's a confirmed front runner. The draw stats say that low is best here...

and that early pace is key...

...and if you've got both in your locker, then you can expect a good position on the pace/draw heat map...

Not quite the best but with favoured conditions, a decent draw and the perfect race tactics, he must be in with a shout.

Summary

Two horses that should really like the conditions, but the latter, Bare Grils looks most likely to succeed of the two. He's currently priced at 5/2 , which is marginally shorter than the 11/4 I thought he'd be, but that's about how likely I think he is to win this. He won't have it all his own way, of course and there'll be a few challenging. Of the remainder, I think that Shamshon (9/1) and Scale Force (11/1) might very well outrun their prices and make a bid to get placed.

Mudlahhim, on the other hand is third best on my figures/notes and in a 7-runner contest that's not quite enough. he's going to have to rein it in a bit early on and bide his time more than usual, otherwise he's going to get run out of it late on. The ones I like more than him are the top two in the market, Whittle Le Woods (6/4) and the 3/1 Tipperary Tiger. That said, Mudlahhim is as big as 18/1 in places and could well be a nice E/W bet if one of the favourites slip up.

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