Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/01/22

Tuesday's free GOLD feature is The Shortlist, a simple (and usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And here is The Shortlist for Tuesday...

In addition to The Shortlist, we also our usual daily selection of full free race cards and for Tuesday, they will be...

  • 1.45 Hereford
  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 3.10 Lingfield

It's pretty poor racing on Tuesday, I'm afraid, but the Hereford race is the best (on paper) of the three free races and it does have two runners from , so although with 14 runners it takes me out of my comfort zone, I'm going to have a quick run through the 1.45 Hereford to see if I can whittle a large-ish field down to something I'm more comfortable with. The race itself is a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 3m1½f, where they'll tackle 13 flights of hurdles on good to soft ground (soft in places with more showers forecast) in a bid to scoop at pot worth £7,570 and here are the contenders...

FORM : All bar three (Mr Clarkson, Fitzroy & Glance from Clover) have at least one win from their last five outings, but all three do have a runner-up finish amongst those results. Steinkraus & Art of Diplomacy are our LTO winners and the form horses look like being Mr Washington, Steinkraus and possibly Beau Haze.

CLASS MOVERS : Theme Tune, Scarpia (2nd handicap run here), Subcontinent & Fitzroy all step down a level from Class 3 action with the two LTO winners Steinkraus & Art of Diplomacy stepping up from Class 5 wins.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Beau Haze has won here over 2m4f and Global Harmony won here over 3m2f on his only previous hurdles run on this track.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : All bar three (Mr Clarkson @ 243 days, Fitzroy @ 74 days, Glance from Cover @ 243 days) have raced in the last six weeks with three (Scarpia, Gazette Bourgeoise & Fifrelet) being rested for less than three weeks.

There are plenty of green positive form icons for both trainers and jockeys, but not too many red negative ones aside from those for Fitzroy. Also, on the subject of jockeys, half of the fourteen of them are claimers (3x3lb, 2x5lb & 2x7lb).

Instant Expert is our go-to guide to a horse's suitability for the task ahead and here's the win & place overview for this race...

GOING : Mr Washington's 4 wins and a place from 5 is clearly the best on offer, but honourable mentions go to Subcontinent (1w, 3pl from 7) and Beau Haze (2w, 3pl from 9). Mr Clarkson's 2 wins from 8 is respectable, but he hasn't made the frame in any of his six defeats.

CLASS : Again it's Mr Washington catching my eye with 3 wins and 2 places from 7, but Mr Clarkson had made the frame in all three runs and Subcontinent, Go Chique & Beau Haze also have good place numbers.

COURSE : Only four of this field have raced here before with two (Global Harmony & Beau Haze) winning. Steinkraus is the only one of the four to fail to place.

DISTANCE : At 3m to 3.25m, the same five runners are green for both win and place ie Mr Washington, Global Harmony, Go Chique, Steinkraus & Art of Diplomacy

And based on the above notes, Fifrelet, Fitzroy, Gazette Bourgeoise, Glance from Cover, Scarpia & Theme Tune look weakest, albeit off a small number of runs.

Just shy of 3m2f on Good to Soft/Soft ground might take some getting here, so let's consult the PACE stats to see which approach has worked best here in the past...

Only nine previous races to consider, but those wanting to set the pace have done best, but those immediately behind them have come off worst, so the previous unheralded Gazette Bourgeoise finally gets a positive mention here, though I doubt she'd have enough about her to hang on and win.

At the other end of the pace spectrum, not such good news for Mr Washington, who up to now had ticked lots of boxes for us, but if he was best in all departments, he'd end up being too short to back.

Summary

Despite his pace profile not suggesting he'll do well here, Mr Washington has been a positive throughout the selection process and although this could be a very competitive contest, he's the one I like best after 5 wins and a narrow defeat as a runner-up from his last 7 runs, he's sure to be there or thereabouts again. I had him as a 6/1 chance here, so to see Bet365 offering 8/1 and four places, I'll take an E/W bet.

In fact, most firms are paying on four places (Sky go 5) and the ones I think are likeliest to be involved here are Art of Diplomacy (LTO winner receiving weight from most of the field), Beau Haze (decent form and good IE place scores), Go Chique (proven at the trip) and Steinkraus (has won at both trip & going and comes here in good form).

Art of Diplomacy is probably the best of that quartet, but odds of 11/2 prevent an E/W bet from me. Beau Haze is currently 14/1 with Go Chique 10/1 and Steinkraus 11/1 and I wouldn't deter you from backing any of that quartet for a small E/W tickle.

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