Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/07/23 geegeez.co.uk

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...none of which really grab my attention. Thankfully, as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

3.17 Hamilton
3.27 Brighton
3.45 Tipperary
7.20 Roscommon
9.00 Ffos Las

...from which, despite the small field, the 3.17 Hamilton looks the best. It's a 6-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m½f on good to soft ground...

The early (just after 2pm) opening show suggests that it could be a tight contest, with only Barley considered to be here to make up the numbers...

...and that might partially be because he's up in class here after three fairly poor efforts at Class 3. He is eased a pound, but you have to worry about his chances here. Top weight Austrian Theory is also up in class, despite only finishing 7th of 8 last time out, although he did win at this class/trip two starts ago.

Bottom weight Maysong is the sole LTO winner, having beaten the re-opposing pair Eilean Dubh (3rd) and Repertoire by 0.5 and 4 lengths respectively, but this pair are 9lbs and 12lbs better off here today, as Maysong isn't riden by his 7lb claimer. Repertoire did win over a mile at Class 4 three starts ago, but has toiled in this grade since.

Both EileanDubh and Barley wear first-time tongue ties, whilst it's a cheekpiece debut for Fantastic Fox, who along with Austrian Theory and Eilean Dubh are our three course and distance winners. The other three have yet to win here at Hamilton but have all scored over a similar trip.

All six have raced in the last 11 to 32 days, so no rustiness expected, nor are any thrown back in too quickly and we've no three year olds to muddy the waters with their weight allowances!

Further stats are available via Instant Expert, which says that only three of these have raced on good to soft ground before with just one successful, And we also find that Fantastic Fox's turf record at Class 2 really isn't very good...

The entire field are racing off marks 2 to 4lbs higher than their last winning marks, so there's little in it there. The Fox's 0/11 at Class 2 is a concern, as is Repertoire's 0 from 9. The other issue is Maysong failing to win any of seven attempts on good to soft ground, but he has managed to make the frame a few times...

...and whilst his win stats make me wary of backing him, his place data is probably the best on show, so a possible placer here? Mind you, unless something tells me to get on Barley, there'll be no E/W bet today, as 5/1 isn't long enough for me. Austrian Theory won this race last year but that was on good to firm, where he is 3 from 8 as opposed to his 0 from 11 elsewhere. Repertoire is the clear weak link on Instant Expert.

I don't expect any of these to be handed an advantage by the draw, as previous past contests here have gone like this...

...whilst the pace stats for those same races have really favoured those keen to get on with things...

...hold-up horses tend to struggle here from win a win and a place perspective and that's yet more bad news for Repertoire, based on his last four outings...

Summary

Repertoire was poor on Instant Expert and might well get left behind, based on his pace profile, so he's out. Maysong beat Eilean Dubh by half a length last time out and scored well on IE, but he's 9lbs worse off here and is another who might get outpaced, so he's gone too.

Austrian Theory won this last year and will probably attempt to win from the front here, but his record on anything slower than good to firm is abject and he has a tendency to run out of steam on these slower surfaces. All of which leaves us with three. Barley is unfancied by the early market and he's up in class after a series of poor runs in a lower grade. Surely he's not suddenly winning here?

So, almost by default, I've got Eilean Dubh and Fantastic Fox left to deal with and the latter simply isn't a Class 2 runner based on his past efforts, so I have to agree with the bookies by saying Eilean Dubh is the one to beat. Don't get me wrong, he's no standout here, but he's arguably the "least bad". A 9lb pull for a half length defeat is really beneficial and if he tracks the leader(s) as expected, he should win. 5/2 is probably about the right price, but I won't be lumping on in what looks a fairly mediocre race for a Class 2.

Next best might well be Maysong. Yeah, he's that 9lbs worse off here, but with an LTO win and two wins, two places from his last six, he might be the one for your forecast/exacta.

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