Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/03/2024

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Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Esprit du Potier (The Potter's Spirit?) must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

• 3.20 Newcastle
• 6.00 Southwell
• 6.30 Southwell
• 8.30 Southwell

The first of our trio of 'free' evening races is not only the joint highest-rated race in the UK for Tuesday, but also the most valuable, so let's have a look at who might land the £7851 top prize in the 6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

As I'm a bit later than usual going 'live ' today, I've already seen the market, which I don't usually do and my initial thoughts about the race were that the top four in the market are probably the ones to look hardest at ie Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day in card order, but the analysis might tell me otherwise.

None of the ten managed to win last time out, but Assessment has won two of his last four, Borgi was an LTO runner-up and Leap Day has been runner-up in each of his last two. Tropez Power, Perseverants and Vecchio are winless in 8, 7 and 7 with Vecchio being a seven-race maiden, whilst despite not winning any of his last eight, Tropez Power has made the frame in seven of his last twelve starts, winning twice.

Borgi, fast-finishing Master of Combat, Perseverants, Vecchio and bottom weight Three Yorkshiremen all step up a class here, whilst Leap Day and Life On The Rocks are both up two classes today. Top weight Assessment makes a yard debut for Archie Watson after leaving Sir Michael Stoute, but might well need the run after a 285-day break, especially as all his rivals have raced in the last 15-45 days.

Vecchio, Life On The Rocks and Borgi have yet to win over this type of distance, but the latter has at least won here at Southwell, landing a 7f maiden on debut back in February 2022. Of his rivals, only Leap Day and Tropez Power have also scored here and both are course and distance winners with the latter having a 131 record from three attempts, making him just about the pick from an average looking set of numbers on Instant Expert...

I say average, rather than poor because all of the red above is from sample sizes of four races or less and if any were to win a race soon, they'd soon be at 20% or higher. Now, whilst the win stats above don't exactly point us towards any sort of decision or help whittle the field down, the same cannot be said about the following place data from the same parameters...

...because they're saying (to me, at least) that we focus on the four I initially mentioned plus Master of Combat, giving us runners in stalls 2, 3, 7, 8 and 10, which might make the draw stats very interesting. Let's check...

...the basic 'split the field into three' stats says that higher drawn runners don't make the frame often enough, but that mid-drawn runners fare best of all, which isn't good considering I've eliminated the runners in stalls 4, 5 and 6! But all is not lost, as the PRB3 data suggests that those drawn lowest still have a good chance of beating most of their rivals...

...whilst the pace data from those very races above...

...says we should avoid pace-setters and hold-up horses wherever possible and that doesn't bode too well for either Leap Day nor Tropez Power from my shortlist.

Summary

I had four runners (Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day) in mind from the start and I added Master of Combat to the list during my analysis. Master of Combat has been in decent nick and could be an outside bet for the places, but (a) I think he's the least likely of the five to succeed and (b) I'd want more than 7/1 to go E/W on him, even if both Hills and Sky are offering four places.

Then, of my original four, I've doubts about Assessment's race sharpness after more than nine months off. He certainly has ability/promise, but odds of 13/8 to 2/1 don't scream value to me after such a long absence and he is drawn widest of all. Tropez Power is a former course and distance winner and drawn low, but is held-up for a run more often than not and those tactics are a negative here. Borgi has won here before, will be handily placed from a pace perspective from a low draw and the only issue with him is a step up in class, whilst Leap Day is not only up two classes, he's a confirmed front runner and will be the target they will all aim at.

None of my final four tick all the boxes, but after looking back at the market's best odds at 6.30pm...

...my tentative 1-2 would be Borgi to beat Tropez Power, who'll have to avoid traffic on a late run. Leap Day has a better draw than Assessment and might hold him off for the place money.