Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/02/24

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

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N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where the first three would be of the most obvious interest and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.20 Taunton
  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 4.35 Market Rasen

The race featuring numbers 2 & 4 on The Shortlist looks a better contest than the one featuring nos 1& 3, so we'll head to Lincolnshire for the 3.35 Market Rasen, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively a right-handed 3m½f after a 132 yards rail adjustment. The ground is expected to be good to soft and here's how they're due to line up...

All nine set to go to post have raced in the last 22 to 48 days, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues here. Easy Bucks, Scene One and bottom-weight Mixed wave all won last time out and this trio are two from four, three from four and two from three respectively.

Of their rivals, only Concetto has won in the last seven outings and that was seven races ago, whilst Jimmy The Digger, Geryville and Song of Earth are winless in 7, 9 and 7 respectively.

Jimmy The Digger and Geryville do both drop in class here, though, as does Concetto, but bottom-weight LTO winner Mixedwave is up a level for a race that sees Jar du Desert make just a second handicap appearance and Easy Bucks makes a second yard debut for Peter Bowen after 1 run/win in Ireland for John Joseph Hanlon. Scene One and Concetto both wear cheekpieces for the second time after quite differing results in them last time out.

Geryville, Easy Bucks and Concetto have already won over a similar trip to this one, whilst Scene One won here over 2m3½f last time out. Only Mixedwave has won over course and distance, though with two wins and a runner-up finish from three efforts at 3m½f/3m1f and it's Scene One and Easy Bucks who initially catch the eye on Instant Expert...

...although Geryville and Mixedwave have really good place stats...

This type of race has, despite the distance, suited those runners keen to get on with things with prominent runners/leaders providing 55% of the winners and 53.8% of the placers from just 47.1% of the runners...

...which based on the field's last four efforts, puts our three LTO winners, Easy Bucks, Scene One and Mixedwave in the hotseat...

Summary

We have three LTO winners in Easy Bucks, Scene One and Mixedwave and they're the three most likely to get on with it over a course and distance that rewards those setting the tempo. All three are in great form, all three scored well on Instant Expert and two of them appear on The Shortlist. And they're the three to pick from for me.

It's a tight-looking contest, mind and you/the market can make a case for quite a few of these, based on the 6.20pm odds...

...and of my three, I prefer Scene One to beat Mixedwave with Easy Bucks not far out of it.

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