Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/11/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

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N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where a few would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.12 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Chelmsford
  • 3.58 Fairyhouse
  • 4.40 Newcastle
  • 6.25 Newcastle

There are two Class 1 races on Tuesday and one of them is on our list of free races, so we're heading off for the 1.12 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Listed contest over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Al Agaila won last time out and Coco Jamboo has won her last two, but both step up two classes here. Potapova, Zellie, Good Gracious and Pastiche were all runners-up last time around, but the last of that quartet is now up three classes, whilst Julia Augusta and Taarabb are both up one level despite failing to make the frame at Class 2.

Our card doesn't have the benefit of showing Zellie's French form which read 1112212 before her fourth place in last year's 1000 Guineas, so she's not the one with the longest losing run on display here, that would be Potapova, Queen Aminatu and Tarrabb, who all won seven races ago.

It's not a handicap contest, so all runners carry 9-2 with a 2lb allowance for the five 3yo's in the race, making Zellie and Nigiri joint best off at the weights with Coco Jamboo rated some 15lbs worse and I suspect the top four in the official ratings would be a useful starting point for someone who didn't want to analyse the full field.

Most of the field have raced inside the last 40 days and Tarrabb ran in early September, but Julia Augusta and Zellie have been off for six months, so their fitness might have to be taken on trust.

All bar Coco Jamboo, Pastiche and Zouky have already won over a mile, but only two have won here at Lingfield before (mind you, only three have run here!). Al Agaila has finished 311 in three starts here, winning twice over 1m2f after finishing third over this trip, whilst Queen Animatu's record here reads 113 with a win and a place over 7f and a win in this very race last year, making her the sole course and distance winner. For the sake of tying loose ends up, the other Lingfield run by this field saw Zouki finish last of five back in March after a 6-month break.

All this course/distance form is shown in Instant Expert, of course, along with results on standard going and Class 1 action...

...where Al Agaila and Queen Aminatu look the ones setting the standard. In addition to the above, three of these have raced at Class 2 on the A/W, with Al Agaila winning two of three, Queen Animatu winning her only attempt and Coco Jamboo finishing 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton in March.

Our Draw Analyser suggests that there's no real advantage to a high or low draw, based on the evidence of almost 200 past similar races...

...but the Pace Analyser says that the further forward you can race, the greater the chance of winning or making the frame, based on that same set of races...

...and this is how the field have approached their last two races...

Summary

I suggested that those people wanting to avoid a full race analysis might want to focus upon Zellie, Potapova, Queen Animatu and Nigiri and I think this quartet along with the in-form and Instant Expert-highlighted Al Agaila will be the main protagonists.

I'd expert all bar Queen Aminatu of that bunch to race prominently, but she makes up for it by having an excellent set of numbers on Instant Expert. The early market would seem to agree with my shortlist here...

..and if those are the odds I've to play with, Al Agaila is the most obvious E/W option with Bet365 paying four places. As for a winner, there won't be much in it, but I'm hoping Queen Animatu gets towed into it earlier than normal, because I think she's best suited here if not left with too much work to do. 9/2 is probably about right here too.

Zellie is a classy filly who has won at Group 1 in France and was fourth in last year's 100 Guineas and I'd say she was the best horse in the race, but I'd be concerned about her needing a run after six months off. Potapova and Nigiri should both be in the mix, but I don't think they're quite at the level of Zellie/Queen Animatu, but I wouldn't be massively shocked if one or both edged my E/W pick out of the money and with Bet365 paying the first four home, I'm tempted with an E/W saver on Nigiri, especially if she drifts out a little.

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