Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/05/23

I hope you all had a great Bank Holiday weekend and that a return to normality on Tuesday isn't too much of a bind. The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

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N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Weebill and Finest View would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 7.00 Ludlow
  • 7.30 Ludlow
  • 8.45 Newcastle

The first of the two Ludlow contests is the highest rated of our 'free' races and as it also features Shortlist-highlight Finest View, it makes sense to have a look at the 7.00 Ludlow, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over two miles on good ground, that is softer in places with more rain due...

Lipa K and Kincardine both won last time out, but the latter had failed to complete his two previous outings. Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade and Cabrakan are all two from their last five, but Socialist Agenda is winless in five after back to back wins in early 2022.

Only four of these (Caroles Pass, Finest View, Tap Tap Boom & Bombyx) actually ran at this level last time with the other nine up in class, except Socialist Agenda who drops from Class 2. Of the eight class risers, all except Cabrakan step up just one level, but he's up two classes.

Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade, Bombyx and Casi Crudo are running in handicaps for just second time. Finest View wears a tongue-tie for the first time here and Socialist Agenda has a first outing since a wind operation performed during a three month break from action.

That break isn't the longest here, though. Most of the field have raced in the last nine weeks, but the exception, Galata Bridge was last seen in September 2022, so might well need the run.

All of these have won over a similar trip in the past and Tap Tap Boom has also landed a two mile chase here at Ludlow. The only other course winner is Shortlist horse Finest View, who is two from two over course and distance, including a win in this very race last year. He's 5lbs heavier here, but does have a 7lb claimer in the saddle.

In addition to the above, Instant Expert tells us that Bombyx is the only one of the pack yet to win an NH race on good / good to soft ground and that Finest View is the sole Class 3 winner, although Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade & Cabrakan have won at Class 2...

As expected, Finest View is the eyecatcher here and his place record is even stronger...

...where Tap Tap Boom's record at Class 3 remains poor. Bottom weight Casi Crudo, however, also seems like he'll relish the conditions too. If we said that Finest View and Casi Crudo were of definite interest at this stage, we then need to consider how we think they'll approach the contest and based on their recent outings...



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...they both give the impression that they'll be fairly close together in mid-field in a race where Prime Time Lady looks like the one to set the pace, although Finest View did race more prominently last time out just as he did when winning this race last year. Racing further forward again here is likely to improve his chances as those setting the pace have the best record in similar past contests...

Summary

I like Finest View and Casi Crudo from above, but I'm not totally convinced they're quite good enough right now to win. The two I think I like more are Caroles Pass, who has the ideal pace profile and the in-form Kincardine, who won LTO by making all. In fairness, any of this quartet could be the winner and I don't really fancy any of them over any of the others, so with the bookies paying four places, I'd take these four for my placers.

I checked the early market from Hills at 4pm on Monday and they had the race priced up as follows...

...where I'd be happy to place a small E/W bet on three of them, but at 9/2 Kincardine is just too short for such an approach, although it would be fitting this week for him to land this for his owners, our newly crowned King and Queen.

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