Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 10/05/22

Tuesday's free feature is The Shortlist, a simple, usually brief, easy to understand list of horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And with all that in mind, here's how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

The "15's" are of course, of immediate interest and I'll definitely take a look at them as well as checking out the following list of 'free' races open to all readers...

  • 1.00 Sedgefield
  • 1.30 Sedgefield
  • 2.50 Chepstow
  • 4.45 Beverley

The two from The Shortlist hold more interest for me, so let's kick things off with Colinton, who runs in the 5.30 Newcastle, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f on standard tapeta...

Colinton has five wins and a runner-up finish from his last eight starts and was only beaten by half a length over this trip on turf at Musselburgh twelve days ago, but down drops down in class. That win came just eight days after he's scored over 1m4f at Catterick, but despite those two excellent runs, he's actually better on the All-Weather where he has four wins from six in handicaps and has done really well in similar conditions to today as shown on Instant Expert...

All six handicaps were on left-handed tapeta tracks and in addition to the above stats, he's 3 from 3 when not the favourite and 2 from 2 over this course and distance. He's drawn widest of all in stall seven, which isn't perfect, but evidence suggests it's better than being drawn low...

...whilst the pace data from those 47 races above says that it's pretty difficult to make all here...

...which on paper, isn't particular good news for our boy...

...although that "2" is encouraging, as is the prospect of another horse taking it on and to his credit that 2 winners from 60 from leaders over this course and distance includes one of his C&D wins, whilst he raced prominently in the other. So although leaders are 2/60, he's 1/1 and the others are 1/59, so I wouldn't write him off just yet purely on pace, because he has pretty much everything else in his favour.

*

Our second qualifier of interest from The Shortlist is Nuble, who goes in the 8.15 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

As you can see, she was most recently third at Kempton, when beaten by 2.5 lengths over 1m3f on a slower track, having won three times in a row over today's trip on standard going, as well as a win over 1m1½f at the end of 2021. She's back down in trip here on a quicker surface and eased 2lbs by the assessor, that might or might not be enough, but it should make her more competitive.

To date, she has four wins and a place from seven A/W handicaps (wearing a hood each time) and her form under these conditions is, of course, documented by Instant Expert...

An impressive set of numbers that are further enhanced by the addition of...

  • 4 wins from 6 at odds of 8/1 or lower
  • 4 wins from 5 in a tongue tie
  • 3 wins from 6 as a non-favourite
  • 3 wins from 4 as a 4 yr old
  • and 3 wins from 3 over course and distance

She has a fairly low draw in stall 4 of 11, which has actually proven to be the best place to be here in 10-12 runner contests over this trip...

...whilst her running style of late...

...would put her as a mid-division runner, which is just about OK here, based on the following...

...but ideally she'd race a little further forward. However, if we look at the three runs at this track, which all resulted in course and distance wins, the write-ups of the race say...

  • close up, hampered 6f out, pushed along and headway approaching final furlong, soon joined leader, ran on to lead final strides
  • tracked leaders, headway on inner over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon pressed, ran on gamely
  • chased leaders, pushed along and slightly outpaced 2f out, rallied out wide over 1f out, shaken up to lead 1f out, ran on well

...suggesting she'll probably race further forward in a more prominent position, which would give her a better chance in my opinion and this theory is backed up by the Geegeez pace/draw heatmap that says prominent runners from a low draw fare best off all here over 1m2f...

Summary

I like both runners and both runners are obviously well suited to the task ahead, hence their scores of 15 on The Shortlist. Yet both come with some doubts over their heads. Both were in excellent form, but failed to win last time out.

Colinton is now some 8lbs higher than his last win and 15lbs higher than his last A/W win, so he's vulnerable there whilst Nuble's 97-day absence is the longest she's gone between races. Admittedly it's not exactly a lengthy lay-off and she did only make her debut less than seven months ago, but all her eight previous starts were condensed into a period of 106 days, so 97 is quite a break for her, having only had 28 days off twice as her longest rest.

That said, if the price is right, they could still be worth backing.

Colinton is currently (3.40pm with Hills) the 4/1 second favourite behind a short-looking Murau at 4/6 and I think the fav is worth taking on at those odds, whilst the 9/1 Scheggi also interested me from an E/W perspective. As for Nuble, she'll need to beat the 9/4 fav Meadram who looks the best in the field, but at odds of 7/1 and possibly bigger later Nuble is definitely worth an E/W bet at the very least and if not too rusty, could still go on and win. Noble Peace also caught the eye at a too-large-looking 14/1.

 

 

 

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