Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/01/22

Tuesday's FREE Geegeez GOLD feature is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. The Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is (and has always been) that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And here's how The Shortlist looks for Tuesday...

...whilst these are our daily 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Doncaster
  • 2.30 Exeter
  • 3.50 Doncaster
  • 5.50 Southwell

I'm a bit wary of Southwell right now after the new surface was installed and I'd prefer to wait until we've got more data from there, so I'm going to leave The Shortlist alone as well as the last of the free races and I'm heading towards Devon, because the race there is a stayers' chase on difficult ground, which is always of interest. The race itself is the 2.30 Exeter, a Class 3, Heavy ground, 5yo+ Handicap Chase, taking in 18 fences over a right-handed 3m½f for a first prize of £11,219...

The early indications from Hills is that this should be a two-horse race between Morning Spirit and Ede'iffs Elton, who have been installed as early 10/3 jt favs. On my own numbers, I'd be inclined to agree and my personal preference would be for the top weight Morning Spirit to prevail. The fact that the third in the betting is 15/2 means we might get a nice E/W option here, so let's go through the card...

FORM : Just the one LTO winner, but that was 289 days ago for Another Emotion, but five others (Run To Milan, Win My Wings, Drumlee Watar, St Erney & Ede'iffs Elton) have won at least one of their last five outings. My preference Morning Spirit has two runner-up finishes from three.

CLASS : Only Eden Flight is up in class (+1), but Drumlee Watar and Another Emotion are both down a level, whilst Win My Wings drops two classes.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Musical Slave has won here before and Morning Spirit, Drumlee Watar, Classic Ben, Another Emotion & Ede'iffs Elton have all scored at similar trips with both Run To Milan and St Erney having won over course and distance.

DAYS SINCE RUN :
Another Emotion & Musical Slave have both been off the track for some time (289 & 255 days respectively), but aside from Drumlee Watar who raced just under seven weeks ago, the rest have all been seen in the last four weeks.

TRAINER STATS
Positive : Ede'iffs Elton, Eden Flight, Morning Spirit, Musical Slave (form). Another Emotion, Drumlee Watar, Eden Flight (course)

Negative : Another Emotion, Drumlee Watar, Poker Play (form)

JOCKEY STATS
Positive : Morning Spirit, Musical Slave, Poker Play (form). Eden Flight (course)

Negative :
Win My Wings (form) Drumlee Watar, Ede'iffs Elton, Musical Slave (course)

And based on a simple simple +1 for a positive and a -1 for a negative, the ones scoring best here with 3pts each are Drumlee Watar, Morning Spirit, Run to Milan and St Erney. This is based purely on what you can see on the racecard itself, for a closer analysis of how they've performed under the conditions they're likely to face here, we have Instant Expert to guide us...

...where we don't have a lot of green to work with. We do have four heavy ground winners : Morning Spirit, Run to Milan, Poker Play and Another Emotion and six former Class 3 winners. We mentioned our three course and six distance winners earlier of course. There's a lot of red on there and I'm often concerned about horses in the red after 8 or more efforts, which isn't good for Poker Play (class/distance), Classic Ben (distance) and  St Erney (class). Perhaps the place stats will show some of these in a better light?

That's a much brighter outlook and aside from Morning Spirit's line of green, I'm drawn to Run To Milan's 2 wins and 3 places from 6 at this track and his record at this trip as well as Win My Wings at this class and Drumlee Watar at the distance. I'm not so enamoured by Run to Milan's mark of 130, some 13lbs higher than his C&D win here 10 months ago, where he made most of the running and he, Classic Ben and Drumlee Watar are the ones here who do like to force the pace as shown below...

...but we must consult our pace stats to see which approach works best here and they say that, yes, leading is the best policy...

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, the above should explain why I like Morning Spirit here, but possibly not why Ede'iffs Elton is so highly regarded.  We'll deal with my preferred option first, Morning Spirit ticks boxes on the racecard and Instant Expert. He won't lead, but he'll be prominent and based on the way he was 2nd of 17 here over course and distance last time out, he's the one to beat. The racecard has lots of good stats about him...

and a price of 10/3 is probably about right. But what of Ede'iffs Elton? He doesn't show up half as well as the pick, but he's 1162 in his last four over fences since adopting cheekpieces with the 6th of 13 coming here over C&D after 10 months off track and he was only beaten by a head next/last time out. I think he'll run a big race here, but 10/3 is a bit skinny in my opinion and it probably says more about the lack of quality in the rest of the field.

Of the rest, they're not very exciting to be honest and the market doesn't really know which way to jump. Seven horses are priced in the narrow 15/2 to 12/1 bracket and I'm not in a massive rush to back any of them, although the 12/1 Run To Milan has interested me during the process and although carrying too much weight to win, could well outrun his odds from the front of the pack if he starts well and I suppose you could say the same to some extent about 22/1 outsider of the field, Drumlee Watar, but I wouldn't be throwing much money at either.

 

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