The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where Mister X and Earls would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...
- 2.45 Pontefract
- 3.55 Pontefract
- 4.15 Wolverhampton
- 5.15 Tramore
...and with one of the top two runners from The Shortlist running in the best looking race from the free list, it makes sense to have a closer look at Earls and the 3.55 Pontefract, which is a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 6f on good ground, that is already softer in places and more rain is expected...
Bottom weight Kitai is the only LTO winner in the field today and as the sole 3 yr old will also benefit from a 6lb weight allowance. The solitary female in the race is, however up two classes and 5lbs here for a two length success at Carlisle just under a fortnight ago.
None of her rivals even made the frame last time out, but all have at least one win in their most recent form line and in a bid to get a bit more success, Aleezdancer is in first-time blinkers, Earls makes a cheekpieces debut and a visor is now fitted to Aphelios.
All of these are previous 6f winners with the veteran and top-weight Summerghand, Aleezdancer and Kitai all former course and distance winners. Featured horse Earl is coming off a short break of almost seven weeks, but the others have all raced in the last 8 to 19 days.
All seven have at least one Flat win on good or good to soft ground, but according to Instant Expert, just three have won a flat race at Class 2...
From a win perspective, Summerghand would probably want quicker ground that this, but he has actually won twice on soft ground too, so all might not be lost there especially now that he's 2lbs lower than when winning the 24-runner Ayr Gold Cup last September and he did win a Listed contest at Lingfield in February. Aleezdancer may well be 1 from 11 at Class 2, he has finished 4313 in the four sub-£20k Class 2 contests, so it's not a given that he might be outclassed here and when we look at place form, it's Bay Breeze who looks the weakest...
...whilst it's hard to ignore Aphelios' OR of 89, some 14lbs higher than his win at Carlisle last August, although it would be unfair of me not to mention that he did win on the A/W at Kempton off 84 in October and was placed next time out at the same track/class/distance off 88.
Our Draw Analyser suggests that those drawn centrally fare worse than runners drawn either side of them...
...and much is made about the "Ponty Golden Corridor from stalls 1 & 2", but closer analysis shows that stall 6 is also a decent place to run from...
...I'm assuming that's because they can hit the turn a little wider and take the bend at a greater speed, somewhat akin to an F1 racing line. Earls & Kitai will be pleased to have got the inside draw, but old warrior Summerghand could be well primed from box six, based on the above. Much will, of course, depend on how runners approach this race, because a 6f at Ponty certainly favours those most willing to get on with things from the off...
Sadly, this bunch aren't exactly the early pace types as shown from our pace/draw heat map below...
...with only It Just Takes Time having more 3+ scores than 2 or under. This suggests we're going to get a falsely run race here, which will play into the hands of those who might well have been left behind had there been any significant early real pace.
Summary
It's not obvious where to go here, aside from discarding Bay Breeze, based on Instant Expert. I suppose Aphelios' weight is too much of a concern for me to feel comfortable backing him and whilst Kitai won well recently, she's up in class and weight and a price of 15/8 or 2/1 doesn't seem to represent great value to me, although I'm sure she'll be in the mix.
This brings me to Summerghand, who I do like despite his form so far this summer, His mark is now dropping to below his last win, he gets on well with jockey Danny Tudhope and he did win here over course and distance on his only previous visit, 5/1 looks more than fair to me, so that's where I'll be heading. Featured horse Earls makes a UK debut and is probably too high in the weights right now, so is probably left watched, but Bet365's price of 8/1 about Aleezdancer was interesting. He's now only 3lbs higher than his last win and with his jockey taking 7lbs off, he could spring a surprise here. He has gone well enough several times under similar conditions and whilst I don't think he'll beat Summerghand, he'd not be a bad E/W bet, especially with most firms paying three places.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
