Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/12/2023 geegeez.co.uk

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a whole swathe of qualifiers. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

1.00 Punchestown
2.52 Ffos Las
3.10 Fontwell
3.45 Wincanton
7.00 Southwell

Two of our 'free' races feature runners from The Shortlist and the highest rated of the two is the 7.00 Southwell featuring Roarin' Success and Wild Side from above. They'll take on another half a dozen rivals in a Class 3, 3yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

Our two featured runners actually raced against each other last time out at Kempton four weeks ago and here's how that one panned out...

...and with both running off the same marks here, I'd expect them to be closely matched again in a race that looks really competitive. As you can see, neither of them actually won that day, although Roarin' Success made the frame, but Achillea did win last time out and Enola Grey was a runner-up, although she now hasn't won in eleven outings, whilst Lady Mojito has lost eight on the bounce; she'll be visored for the first time here in a bid to improve her form.

None of this field actually raced at Class 3 last time out, as Wild Side, Roarin' Success, Achillea and Finery step up from Class 4 and the bottom three on the card (Hey Lyla, Lady Mojito & Enola Grey) all raced at Class 5. Yorkshire Lady's Class 2 run a month ago makes her the only class dropper here.

All bar Finery (101 days off) have had at least one outing in the last five weeks and Lady Mojito is the only runner here yet to win at this trip, whilst Finery is our sole course and distance winner.

With regards to Lady Mojito, she's bang out of form, hasn't won at the trip and is up two classes and that's enough for me to dismiss her chances here, even before we look at Instant Expert...

Now, I'm a big fan of Instant Expert, but sometimes it doesn't offer as much help as I'd like and today it just reiterates how competitive this contest could. There's no standout candidate purely on those numbers above, nor do any put themselves up for the chop. Finery seems far more experienced and has a good set of numbers to her name.

She's also our sole course and distance winner, having scored here eleven months ago from the widest draw of seven runners and she now finds herself in stall 7 of 8, which hasn't always suited runners here. In similar past contests, a draw in the middle of the stalls has been more conducive to winning here, whilst those drawn lowest make the frame most often...

...whilst our pace data from those races above says that runners racing prominently or leading are more likely to be taking some prize money home...

...and if we combined pace and draw...

...a relatively clear picture begins to form. If we then overlay this field's draw and their pace stats from their last four outings, we get an idea of how the race might pan out...

Summary

Instant Expert didn't exactly help too much today, but the pace/draw heat map suggests we should look at those drawn highest here, even if that hasn't always been successful at Southwell. Both our Shortlist runners, Wild Side & Roarin' Success are involved and although the latter looks slightly worse off than the former, she did come out best last time and off the same marks, I suspect that Roarin' Success might just hold Wild Side off, although it'll be tight again.

I actually think these will be the first two home with Finery getting towed along by them. She loves it here at Southwell and has a good record at the trip and with Hills opening up at 9/1 about her, she might be a nice E/W option. As for the two main protagonists, Roarin' Success & Wild Side, they're 3/1 and 4/1 , first and third favourites respectively.

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