Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12th April 2022

Tuesday's free GOLD feature, the Shortlist, is a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

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Here's how Tuesday's Shortlist stacks up...

...whilst these are our 'free' races of the day...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.50 Ayr
  • 7.00 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

I'm not quite ready for Flat Pattern races just yet, so the next best to cover of the free races is the NH contest from North of the Border, the 3.50 Ayr, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle (12 flights) over a left-handed 3m½f on good to soft ground...

It's not a great looking race, but could be competitive all the same. Ten of the field were priced at 10/1 or shorter at first show (3pm) with Geyser the outlier at 80/1. Horses are generally that price for a reason, so I'm disregarding him right away. It's a field short on recent wins, Geonice won four starts ago and You Some Boy has won three of his last four, but none of the others have a win on their recent formline.

Topweight Walkonthewildside makes a second handicap appearance and drops down a class and Release the Kraken is in exactly the same situation. Elsewhere Askgarmor also drops down a class, whilst Bak Rocky comes down from Class 2 to Class 5 here.

Most of the field have had a run in the last month or so, with just Walkonthewildside (44 days) You Some Boy (50d) and Release The Kraken (87d) off longer. None of the filed have won here at Ayr before after 13 total attempts and aside from You Some Boy's two wins at 3m1f, none have scored at a similar trip either.

Geonice's yard looks to be in decent form (14 30) and also has a good course record, as do the handlers of Walkonthewildside, Release The Kraken and Askgarmor.

I don't want to spend too long on a fairly mediocre race, so I'm going to quickly look at Instant Expert for relevant form and the pace profiler to see if I can whittle the field down pretty quickly...

Well, the win side of IE doesn't give us a great deal, but Fame And Hope has to be discounted after losing 17 races at this level and I noticed Go Bob Go was 1 6-race maiden too, so he's also of the list. Let's see if the place element of Instant Expert sheds any more light on a potential winner other than You Some Boy...

That looks a little more promising that we might actually have a few suited to run a decent run under these conditions. Shoeshine Boy and Askgarmor in particular look totally different from a place perspective, but I'm at the end of the road with Walkonthewildside and Bak Rocky now, leaving me with six to assess from a pace perspective in a race where similar past races have favoured those most likely to get on with it from the off...

...which based on our runners' most recent outings...

...suggests that the likes of You Some Boy and Your Place are the most likely to succeed.

Summary

I've deliberately gone through this one quickly, because it's not a great racer and I wanted you to see how speedily you can actually come to a conclusion and mine is that I want You Some Boy and Your Place to be the first two home.

You Some Boy had a great five weeks (or so) spell during December and January, when he landed three handicap contests on the bounce, taking his mark up from 82 to 103. He subsequently struggled of his new mark next/last time out at Carlisle seven weeks ago, but quite possibly just needed the break, running out of steam late on. A former class 4 winner, he's better than this field on his day and I expect him to bounce back here.

Your Place is still a maiden after nine starts over hurdles, but unlike the other two I dismissed for failing to win, this one has been knocking on the door of late. He was beaten by just 1.75 lengths over 2m5f here at Ayr two starts ago and then lost by just a head at Hexham last month when stepped up to 2m7½f. He was doing all his best work late on and was only headed/beaten very close to the line and a similar effort puts him in the frame again.

Based on everything we've documented here, I've got to side with You Some Boy over Your Place, but the market disagrees with me somewhat. Your Place is the current (4.15pm) 10/3 favourite, but You Some Boy is available at 17/2, so I'll take an E/W shot there. For a third horse in the frame, they're much of a muchness if truth be told but Shoeshine Boy has beaten both of my 1-2 in recent outings and would be my third horse in any trifecta/tricast perms.

 

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