Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/06/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

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N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

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Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.50 Brighton
  • 2.10 Salisbury
  • 2.30 Southwell
  • 3.00 Southwell
  • 4.40 Salisbury
  • 5.10 Salisbury

...and the highest rated from those two sets of races is the last of the free ones, the 5.10 Salisbury, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Three of these (Spirit of the Bay, Alba Longa & Spring Fever all won last time out, whilst Haughty is the only maiden in the field, albeit off just five starts. half of the field ran at this Class 4 level last time out, but Timeless Melody drops in from Class 2 and haughty is down one class, whilst Alba Longa and Spring fever both step up one level.

In a fairly inexperienced field, half of them (Timeless Melody, Alba Longa, Spring Fever & Gentle Whinny) run in handicap company for just the second time and none of the field have won here at Brighton before. That said, only Totnes has actually been here before! Spirit of the Bay, Spring Fever and Dayzee have at least won over this trip.

Bottom weight Haughty might need the run as she comes off a nine-month break, but her rivals have all race at least once this term. We''re not getting too much from Instant Expert today, as the field only have 51 previous outings between them and top weight Spirit of the Bay accounts for 21 of those races, but let's see what data we do have...

...all fairly self-explanatory and the one catching my eye is Spirit of the Bay, especially from a place perspective. She's top weight and drawn second widest in stall 7 and whilst the draw stats suggest those drawn lowest would fare best, the raw data actually says there's not really a massive bias at play here...

...and that stall 7 has done as well as any other berthing...

So, it's not a long race and the ground is quick with no real draw bias, so PACE might well be the key here and from those races above that we used for the draw data, we see that...

...the further forward you race, the better your chances of winning/making the frame, which based on this field's more recent efforts...

...is the fly in Spirit of the Bay's ointment and the ones best off here are probably the first four named.

Summary

Largely inexperienced horses with little relevant race data. The draw is unlikely to affect the race and there's not actually that much pace early on. Spring Fever looks the most likely winner on form/pace, but at odds of 7/4 to 15/8, I'm not really interested in backing her.

Up to the pace section, I was looking to back Spirit of the Bay to make the frame but the pace stats are troubling. That said, she ran really well at Haydock last time and easily has the best place stats in this field. had she been in 8/1 to 11/1 kind of price, I'd probably have left her alone, based on pace as she might need the contest to fall apart ahead of her, but at 14/1 I've been tempted into an E/W tickle.

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