Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/06/2022

Tuesday's free races of the day are as follows...

  • 1.45 Thirsk
  • 3.40 Royal Ascot
  • 4.30 Stratford
  • 5.10 Beverley
  • 7.30 Roscommon...

...whilst our daily free feature on Tuesdays is The Shortlist...

...a report highlighting horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply, but as ever...please refer to our User Guide for further information.

The Shortlist is dominated by runners at Royal Ascot, as you'd expect, and although there's a pair on that list from one of our 'free' races, the 3.40 Royal Ascot, it's a braver man than I who tackles the 18-runner King Stand Stakes 5f sprint! That said I do want to look at the 2.30 Royal Ascot, where three of the seven runners are on The Shortlist. Baeed, Real World and Lights On are our qualifiers in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes for 4yo+ runners over a straight mile on good to firm ground. It is worth over a third of a million pounds to whichever of the following gets home first...

Baaeed is 6 from 6 so far and is likely to be a very short favourite and I've arranged the card in order of Official Ratings, so you can see how much higher rated he is than the others. With that perfect record, it's easy to work out why he's on , but that doesn't mean the race isn't worth me looking at, as his short price will open up a reasonably price E/W bet elsewhere (it's a shame only 7 run) or we might (unlikely) find reasons to lay him.

Sir Busker looks weakest on form here in a field where all have won at similar trips and all bar Order of Australia have won here at Ascot. In fact, Order of Australia and Chindit are the only two yet to win over course and distance and the former at 248 days off is the only one without a race in the past eight weeks. Accidental Agent was a Class 2 runner-up LTO, but the other six last raced in Class 1 company and the assessor rates the field at a 19lb spread.

ACCIDENTAL AGENT
8yrs old now and not the same horse who won this very race four years ago, causing a 33/1 upset inm the process. He's more of a low 100's Class 2 handicapper nowadays and although he has a win and a narrow defeat as runner-up in his two runs this season, this looks well beyond him.

BAAEED
Five from five in the UK last season, plus a win in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. Won another UK Group 1 race last time out when more than 3 lengths better than the field in the Lockinge a month ago despite a seven month absence, looks set to dominate here too.

CHINDIT
A winner of a Listed race and third (5L) behind Baaeed in the Lockinge from his two starts this season. Has plenty to find on the two in front of him LTO, but is sure to give his best here.

ORDER OF AUSTRALIA
Won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in November 2020 and a Group 2 contest at the Curragh last July before making the frame in back to back Group 1 races in France last August/September. They were followed by a poor run back at Keeneland in early October and he hasn't been seen since. Now sporting a tongue tie for the first time and do we ever write off the O'Brien/Moore/Group 1 horses?

REAL WORLD
Four from four in the UK including Listed & Group 3 success last season, before going on to win a Group 2 race on the Meydan turf. A couple of disappointing A/W efforts in the UAE followed, but showed that turf is his preferred surface when a good second to Baaeed in the Lockinge That's probably all he can hope for here too.

SIR BUSKER
Won the 22-runner, Class 2, Silver Hunt Cup handicap here over course 3 days shy of 2 years ago, but hasn't won any of his fifteen starts since. His best run in that time, possibly ever, was when third in this very race last year, but I don't see him troubling the judges this time around

LIGHTS ON
Won a Listed contest at Pontefract last July and backed it up with a Group 3 runner-up finish here over course and distance 17 days later, but her best result to date just has to be her Group 2 win at Sandown last time out, when defying a 196-day absence to land the Gr 2 Bet365 Mile by a neck. She was clinging on at the end, but the result says she won. This is far tougher, though.

At this point, it seem like a repeat of the Lockinge with Baaeed leading Real World home with any of the others (possibly bar Sir Busker) scrapping home for third and this feeling is reinforced by the line of green on Instant Expert for the main protagonists...

A straight mile really shouldn't have a draw bias other than stall 1 having the rail to run along and stay straight and having looked at the data

...I'd treat stalls 7 & 8 as one entity at 13.46% win and 34.62% place strike rate, which ties in well with the other stalls, bar number 2, which I'd class as an outlier or anomaly with stall 3's wins artificially high as a result. Pace, however, is a slightly different matter, as those who set the pace don't fare as well as those who are waited with...

...nut IV figures of 0.90 and 0.85 are hardly disastrous for leaders/prominent runners, but based on their last four outings...

...you might have an interest in those from Lights On downwards.

Summary

I find it very hard to look beyond another Baaeed/Real World 1-2 if I'm honest. The one I like best of the others is Order of Australia, who finished little more than a length behind Baaeed at Longchamp last year and a similar effort puts him in the mix. You write off AP O'Brien at your peril and had Order not been a front runner, I'd have been more keen.

That said, he might hold Real World off and cling on to second place. Either way, I think he's a good shout at 22/1 E/W, even if the bookies are only paying two places.

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