Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 15/02/22

Tuesday's free GOLD feature is The Shortlist, a simple (and usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing. And here's how it looks for Tuesday...

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to The Shortlist, we also have the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 3.05 Ayr
  • 3.20 Lingfield
  • 6.45 Newcastle

The middle of those three races is the highest rated and the most valuable. It also has a Shortlist 12pt horse running in it, so we're going to take a look at the 3.20 Lingfield, which is an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Novices limited handicap chase taking in 18 fences over a left handed 2m7½f on heavy ground...

Bottom weight Movethechains is The Shortlist horse and he comes here off the back of three wins, but does step up two classes from LTO to run here, whilst other LTO winners Frenchy du Large (3 wins from 4) and Tallow for Coal (2 from 3) both scored at this class when last seen. Clondaw Promise is the only other class mover (up 1) and Illegal Model is the only one not to win any of their last five efforts.

Fern Hill is very lightly raced after just seven start, but has taken to fences well, finishing as runner-up on both efforts so far, each at this Class 3 level. His jockey is in good form and he must be in with a shout.

Frenchy du Large won a heavy ground hurdle almost a year ago prior to a 257-day rest in preparation for going chasing. Since switching to the bigger obstacles, he is U11 and having won at this level LTO will look to kick on here, backed by...

Tallow For Coal is 2 from 4 over fences this season, stays beyond 3m and was a comfortable 10 lengths winner at this grade on soft ground LTO. he wasn't really tested that day and I'm not convinced that an extra 8lbs anchors him here.

Shaman du Berlais won over 2m6½f on his chase debut last May but has toiled over shorter distances since. Expected to go better back up in trip but not yet proven at this level and his jumping can be a bit sketchy.

Clondaw Promise won here over 2m4f back in November, then over 2m6½f at Uttoxeter four weeks later. He then raced at Bangor a month ago and should have completed the hat-trick, but fell whilst leading at the last fence. He's up 5lbs despite not winning and tackling Class 3 for the first time might be his undoing here.

Illegal Model probably brings the worst form to the table here, but after just 7 starts (2 over fences), he's still unexposed. He won over 2m7f on debut just over two years ago, handling the heavy ground here at Lingfield with little trouble, but the step up to class 2 was too much for him so soon. He came off a 260-day absence to make a chasing bow at Kelso last December but was hampered into unseating his rider early and could only manage fifth of sixth LTO, but the yard is in good form...

Seven No Trumps represents Team Skelton and you write them of at your peril and their runner here was a nice winner on chase debut on this track over 2m4f back in November. He was then only third of seven, beaten by 17 lengths on his step up to this level and now faces an extra couple of furlongs further than he's gone before and the trip/class might just do him.

Movethechains completes the line-up and gets weight all round here. He's in excellent form, having rattled off a C&D hat-trick in his last three starts, but he's up 17lbs, up two classes and only has one poor heavy ground run under his belt. This might be a step too far, but...

We've the best part of three miles on heavy ground, so I want to move quickly to Instant Expert to who (if any) are proven under such conditions...

As you'd expect, Movethechains has plenty of green, but has only tackled heavy ground once and hasn't yet raced at this level but is up 17lbs from his last win, meaning his mark has gone from 80 to 117 via three wins over course and distance by 16, 12 and 20 lengths, but all on better ground than today and all at Class 5. Clondaw Promise is 10lbs higher than his last win and 5lbs higher than when falling in the lead at the last fence at Bangor LTO denying him a hat-trick.

Frenchy du Large has won three of his last four, but is only up another 4lbs here and he has won on heavy ground previously.

The pace stats suggest that those who set the pace are the ones most likely to win here...

...with a 10 from 46 (21.74%) return as opposed to the 12 from 126 (9.52%) achieved by non-leaders and based on how this field have ran in their most recent outings...

...the top four seem best suited.

Summary

Fern Hill and Tallow For Coal look like the pacesetters here and there's a good chance they could try and make all here, which would aid their bid to make the frame and they're likely to be challenged by the form horses Frenchy du Large and Movethechains. You can make a pretty valid case for all four to win here and in such a competitive contest, you'd be excused for walking away.

For what it's worth, I think Frenchy du Large might just hold off Shortlist horse Movethechains and at 7/2 vs 5/2, that's how I'd want them to finish. Tallow For Coal is probably next best, but the 11/1 offered by Hills about Fern Hill is too big to ignore, so E/W bets there!

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