Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/01/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

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N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where neither generate obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.15 Plumpton
  • 2.50 Dundalk
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 5.10 Dundalk

I'm not a big fan of Irish A/W racing and that Plumpton race is a Novice affair, so I'll swerve that. There is, however, a veterans staying chase on the same card which might be interesting, so let's have a quick look at the 2.25 Plumpton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 10yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed trip of what will be just over 3m2½f after rail movements on largely good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but Iconoc Muddle and Trincomalee were runners-up. Mind you, I'm not sure the latter's run is too relevant as he hasn't raced for some 635 days since that effort and only Commanche Red (682 days) has been away longer and you'd have to think these guys would need the run.

Elsewhere only I See You Well, Shanty Alley and Burrows Park are winless in seven (8, 13 and 8 to be exact), whilst both Domaine de L'isle and Juniper have failed to finish three of their last four, although the latter had won his previous three!

Domaine de L'isle is actually down two classes here, but I See You Well is up a level, despite his losing run. We know that two of the field haven't raced in 21 months or longer, but aside from Juniper's three month absence, the remainder have all raced in the last four weeks, so most should be race ready for a race where only Iconic Muddle and Commanche Red have yet to win over a similar trip, but both have won on this track before, as has Trincomalee, whilst I See You Well is 2 from 2 over course and distance and 3 from 4 over 3m2f here with Instant Expert looking like this...

...where I See You Well has the best set of figures and the most concerns surround Shanty Alley at class/trip, although none of these exactly set the world alight, even from a place perspective...

From a pace perspective, you're probably going to want to be on a horse that's relatively keen to get on with things...



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and I suspect that Burrows Park and Shanty Alley will attempt to set the tone of the race...

...if their last four runs are anything to go by.

Summary

The two horses I like most are Iconic Muddle after his most recent run and I See You Well based on Instant Expert, but neither have a great pace profile for this contest. That said, those who head the pace charts fall down on other areas; Burrows Park is winless in 8 and has no form under these conditions, whilst Shanty Alley looked the worst on Instant Expert and has won just 2 of 22 over fences.

Juniper and Domaine de L'isle have been pulled up in three of their last four, whilst Commanche Red and Trincomalee will probably need the run which brings me back to Iconic Muddle and I See You Well, having found reasons not to back the other six, which is sometimes how it works.

I See You Well was available at 11/1 at 5.55pm on Monday and that could be a nice E/W price about a horse who loves it here at Plumpton (6 wins from 13 overall), whilst Iconic Muddle would be my preferred winner and 4/1 seems fair.

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