Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21st June

Tuesday's free feature, The Shortlist is a simple (and usually brief) report highlighting horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form (and its odds) imply, but as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

This is how The Shortlist looks this Tuesday...

...where probably only the first on the list interests me enough to take a second look, but I've always got the daily free races to consider too...

  • 1.45 Beverley
  • 4.45 Beverley
  • 6.35 Newbury
  • 6.45 Sligo

Sadly the free races don't really appeal to me, so let's take a look at that 8.00 Newton Abbot race featuring both Al Roc and Kauto The King from The Shortlist. The race itself only has five runners so The Shortlist is well represented in this Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (16 fences) over a left handed 2m5f on good ground...

So, we've some good recent form on display here, all have won at least one of their last five outings withe Black Gerry and Mr Mafia both winning last time out, whilst Kauto The King comes here on a hat trick. Al Roc only ran two days ago and his rivals have all also been in action over the last month.

Although they've all had a recent run, only Black Gerry raced at Class 3 LTO, Kauto The King (won) and Across The Line raced at Class 2, whilst Al Roc & Mr Mafia (won LTO) step up from Class 4.

Kauto the King and Al Roc have won over course and distance, whilst Mr Mafia has won here over 3m2f and 3m2½f, but he has won over an extended 2m4½f at Southwell (hurdles).

It's fair to say that at the respective ages of 13 and 11 that Mr Mafia and Al Roc must be in the twilights of their careers, but they are still winning races and do look competitive in a race the official handicapper feels tricky to call with just one pound splitting four of the five runners...

BLACK GERRY
Does much of his running (4 of 8 starts) at Fontwell and usually races over slightly shorter trips, but he won well over 2m2f at Fontwell last time out, winning by 5.5 lengths despite stumbling 2 out. He's up 5lbs which makes life more difficult, but definitely in the running.

KAUTO THE KING
Seven from eighteen over fences is decent and he has won his last two after scoring over today's trip at Worcester a month ago before landing a Class 2 contest over just 2m½f here at Newton Abbot 11 days ago. Now up 4lbs and 4.5f, he does take a drop in class. Trip won't bother him, as he stays 3m+ and he looks a major player here.

AL ROC
Won here over C&D six weeks ago and has finished 1817 in four races since with good wins over 2m4f and 2m6f but two disappointing efforts in between, particularly LTO when last home of seven, 54 lengths off the pace. At 11yrs of age, he's getting no younger and five runs in less than six weeks has probably taken its toll and a 2-day rest probably isn't enough.

MR MAFIA
At 13, is also at the veteran stage but has won four of eight since the start of August in his Indian Summer. He won by 7.5 lengths at Ludlow last time out, but will need to pull out all the stops here, up in both class and weight. Likes to race prominently, but might get company here.

ACROSS THE LINE
Useful enough over both hurdles and fences for the Skeltons, but he moved yards in the spring and finished 3rd then 1st in a pair of hunter chases for his new handler before a heavy defeat here last time out. That was the Class 2 affair won by Kauto The King and Across The Line could only manage 6th of 7, some 30 lengths away. All his form is at 2m to 2m1½f and could be out of his depth here.

Race suitability is usually best shown via Instant Expert...

...suggesting we focus on the first three, who all carry 5 or 6 pounds more than their last win, so that's a pretty even playing field. Of those Kauto the King has 'done it' more often and is the course specialist and based on recent outings, he's probably going to set the pace here...

...which based on the pace analysis of similar past races, is probably the place to be...

Summary

Based on recent form, Instant Expert and pace, Kauto The King ticks most boxes for me and at 11/4 is probably worth a quid or two of your money.

Of the rest, I think that Black Gerry is probably the best horse and looks best suited, but might concede too much ground. I don't like the recent form of Al Roc and he probably needs a rest. Mr Mafia is in good nick and likes to get on with it, so he could well be involved and I think that Across The Line is out of his depth.

All of which means it's either the 5/2 fav Black Gerry or the 4/1 Mr Mafia for the places and I don't think there'll be much in it, but Mr Mafia might just hold the fav off.

 

 

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