Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/01/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

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N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first two would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.55 Down Royal
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 6.00 Southwell
  • 8.00 Southwell

And I suppose it makes most sense to focus on the last of those four races, where Crimson Angel and The Bell Conductor from The Shortlist will take on six others in the 8.00 Southwell, a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

None of these won last time out, but both Evocative Spark and Reigning Profit finished third. Mondammej and Love Your Work are the only ones without a win in their last seven outings, arriving here on losing runs of 29 & 16 races respectively!

Love Your Work's chances of breaking that cold spell are lessened by a step up in class, just as Reigning Profit does, but The Bell Conductor and Lihou drop a class whilst Revenite drops down two levels, but hasn't raced for seven months so will probably need the run.

That lay-off aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last six weeks with Mondammej's latest defeat coming just a week ago. yet despite his long losing run, he has previously won over this trip, unlike Revenite, Evocative Spark and Love Your Work. The latter has, however, won on this track over both 7f and a mile whilst our other three previous Southwell winners (The Bell Conductor, the fast-finishing Lihou and Crimson Angel) have all scored over course and distance...

As you'd expect, our two runners from The Shortlist, The Bell Conductor and Crimson Angel, feature prominently on Instant Expert...

...where the vulnerable runner looks like being Reigning Profit with a 2 from 14 A/W record at both standard going and 5f. Love Your Work is 0 from 13 at this grade and that's another concern for those hoping he'll break that long losing run. And with just one placed finish from those 13 Class 4 A/W defeats...

...Love Your Work joins Reigning Profit and Revenite in my discard pile, despite his apparent decent record (7 wins, 7 places from 24) here at Southwell. That record, however, is all at 7f and a mile and with him being a career 2 from 24 shorter than a mile, it's a no from me.

There's no real advantage to be gained from the draw here, not that you'd expect there to be over a straight 5f sprint, although the draw thirds suggest low-drawn runners haven't fared as well as par score...

Yet, if we consider actual stall-by-stall data...

...there really is very little in it and I'd be very surprised if the draw cost any runner this or any other Southwell 5f contest. Pace/tactics , however, are a totally different kettle of fish with a distinct advantage offered to those quickest away...

...which means that the following graphic should contain few shocks...

Yet strangely, there's a distinct lack of early pace shown by this field in their last few outings...

...with only The Bell Conductor and Reigning Profit likely to burst out.

Summary

Pace supposedly wins the race here at Southwell over 5f, but neither The Bell Conductor nor Reigning Profit scream "back me!" The former has struggled for form of late, whilst the latter made little appeal from Instant Expert. The Bell Conductor is 3 from 5 over course and distance but was well beaten here last time out and even at 14/1 E/W, I'm struggling to convince myself to 'stick a couple of quid on' and I don't fancy Reigning Profit, especially as a 3/1 fav!

Mondammej is next in the market at 7/2, but he's unreliable from a win perspective having lost 29 on the bounce since November 2021. The rst of the field have a very similar pace profile to each other and if I was to pick one from those likely to be slower away, it would be Crimson Angel from The Shortlist. She's still relatively unexposed, she's 1 from 1 here, 2 from 5 over the trip and 2 from 3 under today's jockey. She's not a shoo-in by any means, but at Hills' 15/2 offered at 4pm, Crimson Angel is my idea of an E/W bet.

 

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4 replies
  1. chris242
    chris242 says:

    A complicated observation looking back at THE BELL CONDUCTOR’s Instant expert figures.

    Your piece about “The Shortlist” shows the horse having 11 points……you then display images of IE with different % figures and the total amounts are different……the actual racecard shows the IE as per The Shortlist calculation……I am looking at Distance as being the incorrect factor, haven’t looked at other figures for errors and of course, disappointment at picking the wrong horse to win….but we all OFTEN make that error……or am I looking at glitch in the process

    • Chris Worrall
      Chris Worrall says:

      The Shortlist and Instant Expert are two separate reports with completely different parameters, as explained in the user guide.
      The distance criteria takes into account slight differences either side of the stated trip, because otherwise the drop down options for distance would be almost endless.

  2. chris242
    chris242 says:

    I think you missed my point but that’s understandable

    your displayed version of IE win & place was different than what we could see on the racecards……which I assume was due to the time you assessed the race in sunny Lancashire and what I could see in Breezy Borders the next day

    • Chris Worrall
      Chris Worrall says:

      Hmmm, that really shouldn’t be the case, but if that does happen again, please let me know via email (chris@geegeez.co.uk) and I’ll investigate.

      As for sunny Lancs, that’s another debate!

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